GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

GPT-6 released by…?

Name: GPT-6 released by…?
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$502.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

GPT-6 released by…?

Vol

$502.02K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $502.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $502.02K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Poly	92%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Poly	73%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Poly	48%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Poly	23%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?	Poly	12%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$502.02K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GPT-6 released by…?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $173.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $121.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.43)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? 
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $50.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 21, 2026): Vol $469
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $63.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $49.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech

GPT-6 released by…?

Volume$502.02K

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open roll

POLYMARKET

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol

POLYMARKET

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rollin

POLYMARKET

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rollin

POLYMARKET

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rollin

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Average Yes Price

37¢

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Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

GPT-6 released by…?

Markets (7)

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

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Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

GPT-6 released by…?

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

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