Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Spain General Election: Turnout

Name: Spain General Election: Turnout
End: 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$361.48

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Spain General Election: Turnout

Vol

$361.48

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $361.48

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $361.48

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Spanish general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	30%
Will voter turnout be between 64% and 66% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	20%
Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	18%
Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	17%
Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	17%
Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$361.48

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of registered voters (electores). (see 2023 example: https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2023/09/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-18907.pdf) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Spain General Election: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 30, 2026 (49 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of registered voters (electores). (see 2023 example: https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2023/09/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-18907.pdf)

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of regi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $361
* **Total Liquidity:** $72.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will voter turnout be between 64% and 66% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $82
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics