$2.12M
2
73
$2.12M
2
73
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that Myles Garrett will win the 2025-26 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading at approximately 91 cents, implying a 91% probability. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades around 90 cents, or a 90% probability. The narrow 1% spread indicates high consensus. A probability above 90% suggests the market views this outcome as virtually assured, with only a minor chance of an upset. This is an exceptionally high confidence level for a season-long award typically decided months from now.
Two primary factors are creating this overwhelming market confidence. First, Myles Garrett is the reigning 2024-25 DPOY, having just secured the award with a dominant 18-sack season. Voters exhibit strong recency bias and a tendency to reward repeat winners from dominant defensive units, especially high-profile edge rushers. Second, the Cleveland Browns' defense is projected to remain elite, guaranteeing Garrett the statistical platform and team success narrative that voters favor. His main historical competitor, T.J. Watt, faces uncertainty with the Pittsburgh Steelers' defensive transition under a new coordinator, effectively clearing Garrett's path.
The primary risk to this consensus is an injury to Garrett during the season, which would immediately crater his odds. A surprise schematic change diminishing his pass-rush opportunities is another, though less likely, factor. The most plausible scenario for shifted odds is the emergence of a historic, record-breaking season from another defender, such as Micah Parsons or a dominant interior force like Chris Jones. The voting announcement in early February 2026 is the final catalyst. The market may slowly adjust if any contender shows a dramatically superior statistical profile through December.
The market is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Polymarket consistently pricing the "Yes" outcome 1-2 percentage points higher. This minor spread of about 1.4% is likely attributable to platform-specific liquidity pools and slight differences in trader demographics, rather than a meaningful arbitrage opportunity given transaction costs. The alignment above 90% on both major platforms reinforces the strength of the consensus. The higher volume on Polymarket suggests it is the primary price discovery venue for this event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Associated Press NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award is presented annually to the defensive player judged to have had the most outstanding season in the National Football League. The winner is selected by a nationwide panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters who cover the NFL, with voting conducted immediately after the conclusion of the regular season and before the playoffs. The award, first given in 1971, represents the highest individual honor for a defensive player in professional football, recognizing excellence in performance, impact on team success, and statistical dominance. The 2025-26 season award will be based on regular season performance from September 2025 through early January 2026, with the winner typically announced during the NFL Honors ceremony held the night before the Super Bowl in February 2026. This prediction market allows participants to speculate on whether a specific player, designated as 'X' in the market parameters, will win this prestigious award for the upcoming season. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if player X is officially named the AP Defensive Player of the Year for the 2025-26 NFL season. Interest in this market stems from the award's significance within the sport, its reflection of defensive excellence in an increasingly offensive-oriented league, and its impact on player legacies, contract negotiations, and Hall of Fame consideration. The early close condition means the market will settle immediately upon the official announcement of the award winner, providing real-time resolution for participants.
The Associated Press NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award was first presented in 1971, with Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page becoming its inaugural winner. The award's history reflects the evolution of defensive play in the NFL, from the dominance of linebackers like Lawrence Taylor, who won three times (1981, 1982, 1986), to the era of defensive backs like Rod Woodson (1993) and Charles Woodson (2009), and the current supremacy of pass rushers. Since 2000, the award has been won by a defensive lineman or edge rusher in 18 of 24 seasons, highlighting the premium placed on pressuring the quarterback in the modern passing game. The only exceptions in that span were linebackers Luke Kuechly (2013) and Ray Lewis (2000, 2003), and cornerbacks Charles Woodson (2009) and Stephon Gilmore (2019). J.J. Watt's three awards (2012, 2014, 2015) and Aaron Donald's three awards (2017, 2018, 2020) represent the most for any player in the 21st century, setting a high bar for sustained excellence. The voting process has remained consistent, with the 50-member AP panel casting their ballots based solely on regular season performance, a critical distinction from other awards that may consider playoff contributions.
Winning the AP Defensive Player of the Year award carries immense significance beyond individual recognition. It substantially enhances a player's legacy, often serving as a key differentiator for Hall of Fame consideration. Historically, multiple DPOY awards almost guarantee enshrinement in Canton, Ohio. Economically, the award can trigger lucrative contract escalators and bonuses, and it strengthens a player's bargaining position in future negotiations, potentially adding millions of dollars to their career earnings. For franchises, having the DPOY validates defensive schemes and player development programs, boosts merchandise sales, and enhances the team's brand as a defensively-minded organization. The award also influences the broader narrative of the NFL season, shifting focus toward defensive excellence in a league often celebrated for offensive fireworks. It highlights the critical importance of defensive play in determining championship outcomes, reminding fans and analysts that games and seasons are still won with stops and turnovers.
As of the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, the Defensive Player of the Year landscape is in a state of anticipation following the conclusion of the 2024-25 campaign. The winner for the 2024-25 season has been announced, setting a new benchmark for performance. Offseason player movement through free agency and the draft, along with coaching changes, will alter team defensive schemes and opportunities for individual players. Key contenders like Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, and T.J. Watt are expected to enter training camps healthy and as the focal points of their respective defenses. Analysts are evaluating how rule changes, if any, for the 2025 season might impact defensive play, particularly regarding roughing the passer and defensive holding. The early betting markets for the 2025-26 award are beginning to form, with sportsbooks listing odds on the familiar favorites and potential breakout candidates from the 2024 rookie class.
The winner is selected by a nationwide panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters who cover the NFL. Each voter submits a ballot ranking their top three choices immediately after the regular season concludes.
No rookie has ever won the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Lawrence Taylor came the closest, winning the award in his second season (1981) after being named Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1980.
It is very common. Since 2000, the Defensive Player of the Year has played for a team that made the playoffs in 22 of 24 seasons, demonstrating that team success is a significant factor in voter perception.
Edge rushers and defensive ends win most frequently. Since 2000, players classified as defensive ends or outside linebackers primarily tasked with pass rushing have won the award 18 times.
The award is typically announced during the NFL Honors ceremony, which is held on the Thursday night before the Super Bowl in February.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
55 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48% | 44% | 4% |
| 18% | 20% | 2% |
| 18% | 20% | 3% |
| 6% | 3% | 2% |
| 3% | 4% | 1% |
| 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 1% | 1% | 0% |
Different
Similar
2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Chet Holmgren wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be of
If Victor Wembanyama wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be of
If Rudy Gobert wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be of
If Bam Adebayo wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be of
If Amen Thompson wins the Pro basketball Defensive Player of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be of
No related news found
Polymarket
$785.59K
Kalshi
$1.34M
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/LXBzUT" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Defensive Player of the Year Winner?"></iframe>