This prediction market addresses the possibility of a United States military invasion of Cuba by the end of 2026. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026. This topic emerges from a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by decades of tension, recent policy shifts, and regional power dynamics. While a direct invasion is considered a low-probability event by most analysts, the prediction market exists to quantify speculative risk based on evolving diplomatic relations, military postures, and political rhetoric from both nations. The question gains relevance from Cuba's strategic location, its historical role in U.S. foreign policy, and contemporary debates about interventionism. Interest in this market stems from observers tracking U.S. policy toward leftist governments in Latin America, potential flashpoints involving Russian or Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the domestic political calculations of U.S. administrations. The market provides a mechanism to aggregate dispersed information and beliefs about a scenario that, while unlikely, would represent a seismic shift in inter-American relations and global politics.

Historical Context

U.S.-Cuba relations have been defined by conflict and confrontation for most of the last 65 years. The pivotal event was the 1959 Cuban Revolution, which brought Fidel Castro to power and led to the rapid deterioration of ties with the United States. This culminated in the failed U.S.-backed Bay of Pigs invasion in April 1961, a direct attempt to overthrow Castro. The following year, the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 brought the world to the brink of nuclear war after the U.S. discovered Soviet ballistic missiles in Cuba, leading to a naval blockade and a tense diplomatic standoff. For decades thereafter, the U.S. enforced a comprehensive economic embargo and maintained a naval base at Guantanamo Bay on Cuban territory under a 1903 lease agreement, a persistent source of friction. The Cold War framed Cuba as a Soviet proxy and a direct security threat. A period of thaw began under President Barack Obama, who restored diplomatic relations in 2015, but this détente was largely reversed by President Donald Trump, who reinstated travel and economic restrictions. This history of invasion, covert action, and enduring hostility establishes a precedent for intervention, making the question of a future invasion a recurring theme in bilateral relations, even if the contemporary geopolitical context differs significantly.

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