This prediction market asks whether the United States will acquire any new territory by 2029. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. This includes announcements by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen. Leasing territory does not count. The question touches on a fundamental aspect of US sovereignty and expansion, a topic that has been largely dormant since the mid-20th century. The US last acquired significant territory in 1959 with the admission of Alaska and Hawaii as states. Since then, the US has added minor territories like the Northern Mariana Islands in 1978, but no major land acquisitions. The question reflects renewed interest in US territorial expansion, driven by geopolitical competition, resource needs, and strategic considerations. Recent discussions have included potential acquisition of Greenland, Puerto Rican statehood, and the status of various Pacific and Caribbean territories. The market is notable because it forces consideration of both political feasibility and international law. The US has not purchased territory since the 1917 purchase of the Danish West Indies (now the US Virgin Islands). Any new acquisition would require either a treaty ratified by two-thirds of the Senate, or an act of Congress, and likely the consent of the territory's current inhabitants. The market's time horizon of 2029 is relatively short, making any acquisition unlikely but not impossible. The question is particularly relevant given the Trump administration's interest in Greenland in 2019, and ongoing debates about Puerto Rican statehood. The market also encompasses less discussed possibilities like the acquisition of other small islands or territories from allies, or the establishment of new US territories in the Pacific. The question is of interest to geopolitical analysts, investors, and citizens concerned with US foreign policy and national identity.

Historical Context

The United States has a long history of territorial acquisition, beginning with the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, which doubled the size of the country. The US acquired Florida from Spain in 1819, Texas by annexation in 1845, and the Oregon Territory through a treaty with Britain in 1846. The Mexican-American War (1846-1848) resulted in the acquisition of California and much of the Southwest through the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo. The Gadsden Purchase in 1853 added small areas of present-day Arizona and New Mexico. Alaska was purchased from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million, a transaction widely mocked as 'Seward's Folly' at the time but later recognized as a strategic bargain. The Spanish-American War in 1898 led to the US acquisition of Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines (the Philippines gained independence in 1946). The US also annexed Hawaii in 1898 and acquired the Panama Canal Zone in 1903. The last major territorial acquisition was the purchase of the Danish West Indies (now the US Virgin Islands) from Denmark in 1917 for $25 million. The US territories of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the US Virgin Islands remain today, along with Puerto Rico. The US also has several uninhabited or sparsely populated territories like Midway Atoll, Wake Island, and various Pacific islands. The US has not acquired new territory through conquest since World War II, and the process of decolonization after the war led to independence for many former colonies. The US has instead focused on maintaining influence through military bases, alliances, and economic partnerships rather than formal territorial control. The question of Puerto Rican statehood has been debated since the island became a US territory in 1898, with several referendums showing shifting support for statehood, independence, or enhanced commonwealth status.