$177.21K
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5
$177.21K
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5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
By 2029 If the United States gains control of any territory outside its sovereignty as of Issuance before Jan X Y then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls the territory that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The territory must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability of approximately 38% to the United States acquiring new sovereign territory before January 21, 2029. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views such an acquisition as unlikely, though not impossible. With a substantial volume of $174,000, this reflects a meaningful consensus among informed traders rather than mere speculation.
The primary factor suppressing the probability is the modern geopolitical and legal paradigm. The last major U.S. territorial acquisition was the U.S. Virgin Islands in 1917. Since then, the global norm has shifted strongly against territorial expansion by conquest or purchase, making any such action a significant diplomatic aberration. Domestically, there is no visible political movement or policy priority for territorial acquisition, with legislative focus directed elsewhere.
Second, the market criteria require formal U.S. governance or jurisdiction. This excludes common modern arrangements like long-term leases or enhanced defense cooperation agreements, which are far more probable than a full transfer of sovereignty. The bar for a "Yes" resolution is intentionally high, limiting plausible pathways.
A shift in odds would require a concrete, credible geopolitical development. The most discussed scenario involves potential U.S. action regarding Greenland, an idea floated in 2019 but swiftly rejected by the Danish government. A renewed, serious push from a future U.S. administration, coupled with a change in stance from Copenhagen, could cause a rapid price spike. Alternatively, a unique crisis, such as a failed state in the Caribbean or Pacific seeking integration into the U.S. for stability, could create an unforeseen pathway. Monitoring U.S. diplomatic statements toward non-sovereign territories or strategic islands will be key, as an official announcement of intent is sufficient for the market to resolve to Yes.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic addresses whether the United States will acquire any new territory by 2029. The question specifically concerns the formal acquisition of land or maritime territory outside current U.S. sovereignty, which would then be integrated into the U.S. system as a state, territory, or other formal jurisdiction. The resolution criteria require either actual transfer of control or a formal joint announcement by the U.S. and the controlling entity that such a transfer will occur. Mere leases, military basing agreements, or informal arrangements do not qualify. This topic emerges against a backdrop of shifting global geopolitics, renewed strategic competition, and evolving American perspectives on territorial expansion. Recent discussions in policy circles have occasionally referenced territorial acquisition as a tool for strategic positioning, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions, though such talk remains largely theoretical. Interest in this market stems from its intersection with American foreign policy, national identity, and the historical legacy of U.S. territorial growth, making it a speculative gauge on a potentially transformative geopolitical event.
The United States has a long, complex history of territorial acquisition, primarily occurring in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The Louisiana Purchase from France in 1803 doubled the nation's size, followed by the annexation of Texas in 1845, the Oregon Treaty with Britain in 1846, and the Mexican Cession in 1848 after the Mexican-American War. The Gadsden Purchase in 1853 finalized the contiguous U.S. border. Overseas expansion came later with the acquisition of Alaska from Russia in 1867 and the annexation of Hawaii in 1898. The Spanish-American War in 1898 resulted in the U.S. gaining Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. The last major territorial additions were the Virgin Islands, purchased from Denmark in 1917, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands after World War II, which later evolved into compacts of free association with independent nations. Since the mid-20th century, the primary territorial focus has been on the political status of existing territories like Puerto Rico, not new acquisitions. The most recent integration of new land was the 1979 return of the Swan Islands to Honduras, a relinquishment, not an acquisition.
The potential acquisition of new territory carries profound implications for American sovereignty, international law, and global power dynamics. It would signal a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy from a post-World War II emphasis on alliances and soft power back toward a more overt, 19th-century style of territorial imperialism. This could destabilize international norms and provoke significant geopolitical friction, particularly with strategic competitors like China and Russia who are also engaged in territorial assertions. Domestically, such a move would ignite intense debate over national identity, resource allocation, and constitutional questions regarding the incorporation of new lands and peoples. It would force a re-examination of the Insular Cases and the legal framework governing territories, with direct consequences for millions who might become subject to U.S. jurisdiction. The economic and military costs of integration, alongside the long-term political representation issues, would create lasting national policy challenges.
As of late 2024, there is no active, official U.S. government initiative or negotiation to acquire new sovereign territory. Strategic discussions focus on strengthening alliances, renewing compacts of free association with Pacific nations, and maintaining military access through existing agreements. In Congress, occasional resolutions concerning Puerto Rico's status continue, but these relate to an existing territory, not a new one. The Biden administration's foreign policy emphasizes diplomatic engagement and multilateralism over unilateral territorial expansion. The most relevant developments are in the Arctic and Pacific, where climate change and Chinese activity are increasing strategic interest, but responses are framed around international law, freedom of navigation, and partnership, not annexation.
Yes, the U.S. government has the constitutional authority to acquire territory by purchase, as demonstrated by the Louisiana Purchase and the Alaska Purchase. However, any such transaction would require congressional appropriation of funds and likely a treaty ratified by the Senate, making it a complex political process with a high bar for approval in the modern era.
A state is a fully incorporated member of the Union with voting representation in Congress and full constitutional protections for its residents. A territory is a possession under U.S. sovereignty whose residents are U.S. nationals or citizens but have limited representation in Congress and where some constitutional provisions may not fully apply, as determined by the Insular Cases.
There have been no serious, high-level attempts at outright acquisition in recent decades. Discussions occasionally surface regarding strategic islands, but policy has favored access agreements, like the Compacts of Free Association with Pacific nations, which grant military rights without transferring sovereignty.
Speculation often focuses on strategic islands in the Pacific, such as parts of the Freely Associated States, or Greenland, following a 2019 remark by President Trump. These are largely theoretical discussions without formal proposals. The Arctic seabed, claimable under international law, is another area of interest.
Statehood requires an act of Congress. Typically, the territory holds a referendum expressing the desire for statehood, Congress passes an enabling act, the territory drafts a state constitution, and then Congress passes a joint resolution admitting the territory as a state, which the President signs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029? | Kalshi | 40% |
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028? | Kalshi | 32% |
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 29% |
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jul 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Mar 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 7% |
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