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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oregon? | Kalshi | 94% |
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon? | Kalshi | 4% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently price the probability of Democrats winning the 2026 Maine Senate race at approximately 69%. This price, translating to a 69% implied chance, indicates the market views a Democratic victory as the clear favorite, but not a foregone conclusion. The remaining 31% chance reflects a significant possibility of an upset by an Independent or Republican candidate. This assessment is based on aggregated trading data across platforms, with moderate liquidity of $145,000 ensuring the signal is reasonably robust against minor volatility.
Two primary structural factors are driving the Democratic favoritism. First, Maine's incumbent Senator, Angus King, is a popular Independent who caucuses with Democrats. While he has not officially announced his 2026 plans, market pricing suggests traders anticipate either his re-election as a de facto Democratic-aligned win or a strong Democratic candidate succeeding him if he retires. Second, Maine's recent electoral history supports this lean. Democratic candidates have consistently won statewide federal elections, with Senator Susan Collins being the notable Republican exception. The state's ranked-choice voting system, which has benefited Democratic-aligned candidates in past cycles, is also factored into the odds, making a straightforward Republican victory less probable.
The single largest catalyst for a major odds shift will be Senator Angus King's official decision on seeking re-election, expected in 2025. A King retirement announcement would immediately create uncertainty, likely causing the Democratic contract price to drop as traders assess the strength of potential successors. Conversely, a clear declaration to run would solidify Democratic odds, potentially pushing them above 80%. Other factors include the national political environment in 2026, which could favor Republicans in a midterm setting under a potential second Biden term, and the emergence of a strong, well-funded Independent or Republican challenger capable of leveraging Maine's unique electoral system.
This event is actively traded on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, prices are closely aligned, showing no major arbitrage opportunity, which indicates consensus among informed traders on both platforms. Minor, fleeting discrepancies may occur due to differences in platform liquidity or user base, but the synchronized pricing around 69% reinforces the strength of the current market signal. Traders should monitor both platforms for any divergence, which could signal new information being incorporated at different speeds.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the 2026 United States Senate election in Oregon, which will determine who represents the state in the Senate for the six-year term beginning in January 2027. The market resolves based on which political party's candidate is sworn into office. The seat is currently held by Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, who was first elected in 1996 and is expected to seek re-election. Oregon's Senate races have gained national attention as potential battlegrounds, reflecting broader political shifts and the state's evolving demographic and political landscape. Interest in this market stems from its implications for control of the U.S. Senate, where narrow majorities have made every seat crucial for legislative agendas. The outcome will test Democratic strength in a state they have historically dominated, while Republicans view it as a potential pickup opportunity amid changing voter sentiments in the Pacific Northwest.
Oregon has elected Democrats to the U.S. Senate consistently since 1992, when Republican Bob Packwood resigned. Ron Wyden won the subsequent 1996 special election with 48% of the vote, defeating Republican Gordon Smith. Smith then won the state's other Senate seat in 1996, but lost it to Democrat Jeff Merkley in 2008. Since then, both Oregon Senate seats have been held by Democrats. Wyden's re-election margins have varied, from a narrow 51% in 1998 to a commanding 57% in 2010 and 56% in 2016. In his most recent election in 2022, he defeated Republican Jo Rae Perkins with 56% of the vote. Historically, Oregon was considered a swing state, voting for Republican presidential candidates as recently as 1984. However, it has trended Democratic at the federal level over the last three decades, though with closer margins in gubernatorial and state legislative races. The 2022 gubernatorial election, where Democrat Tina Kotek won by just 3.5 points, demonstrated Republican resilience in statewide contests.
The outcome of Oregon's 2026 Senate race will have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, where Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority. Each seat is critical for passing legislation, confirming judicial and executive nominations, and setting the national policy agenda. A Republican victory in Oregon would represent a major shift in the Pacific Northwest's political alignment and could signal changing voter coalitions in traditionally Democratic-leaning states. For Oregon specifically, the election determines whether the state retains a senior senator with substantial committee influence or starts with a junior senator lacking seniority. The race will also test the durability of Democratic support in urban centers like Portland against growing Republican strength in rural and suburban areas, with outcomes influencing campaign strategies nationwide.
As of late 2024, Senator Ron Wyden has not formally announced his intentions for the 2026 election, though he is widely expected to seek re-election. No major Republican candidates have declared their candidacy, with potential contenders likely waiting for Wyden's decision. The Oregon Republican Party, under Chair Kevin Mannix, is actively recruiting candidates and building infrastructure for the 2026 cycle. National political forecasters currently rate the race as 'Likely Democratic' or 'Solid Democratic,' but this could change based on candidate recruitment and the national political environment. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) lists Wyden as a priority for defense, while the NRSC is monitoring the race for potential investment.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Oregon conducts all elections by mail, with ballots typically sent to voters several weeks before this date. The primary election will be held in May 2026 to select party nominees.
Ron Wyden has served five full six-year terms in the U.S. Senate, plus approximately two years of an unexpired term. He was first elected in a January 1996 special election to complete the term of Bob Packwood, then won re-election in 1998, 2004, 2010, 2016, and 2022.
Yes, Oregon has elected several Republican Senators throughout its history. The most recent was Gordon Smith, who served from 1997 to 2009. Before him, Bob Packwood served as a Republican Senator from 1969 until his resignation in 1995.
Senator Wyden chairs the powerful Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over taxes, healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid, international trade, and social security. He also serves as the ranking member on the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Potential Republican challengers include 2022 gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan, former state representative and 2022 Senate candidate Jo Rae Perkins, or potentially a business leader or local official. The candidate field will likely clarify in 2025 after the 2024 election cycle concludes.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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