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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?

Name: Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?

Vol

$21.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.1%avg

max 0.2%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?	99%	100%	0%
Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?	0%	0%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(6)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$21.45K

Volume

Markets

37.1%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Ohio, scheduled to take place on May 5, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Democratic Primary t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.37)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (8 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $14.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Emilia Sykes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Allison Russo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tim Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Greg Landsman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Chris Redfern be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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KALSHIElections

Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?

Volume$0.00

Markets8

POLYMARKETPolitics

Ohio Governor Democratic Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Ohio, scheduled to take place on May 5, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Ohio Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming

Volume$21.45K

Markets2

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POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average99.5%

Polymarket

99.4%

Kalshi+0.2%

99.6%

Difference:0.2%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 99.4¢No 0.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 99.6¢No 0.4¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Amy Acton be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

If Amy Acton wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Amy Acton wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Allison Russo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Allison Russo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

If Allison Russo wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Allison Russo wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Emilia Sykes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Emilia Sykes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

If Emilia Sykes wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Emilia Sykes wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Tim Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Tim Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

If Tim Ryan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Tim Ryan wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Ohio?

If Sherrod Brown wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Sherrod Brown wins the party's nomination.

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

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50¢

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Ohio Democratic Governor nominee?