TN-07 House winner?
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
TN-07 If the House member sworn in for TN-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi prices a Republican win in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District at 91%. That is a near-certainty in prediction market terms. A 91% probability means the market sees a GOP victory as the baseline expectation, with Democratic chances reduced to a longshot 9% scenario. This district has not elected a Democrat since 1878, when it was a different configuration entirely.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 7th District covers suburban Nashville and rural western Tennessee counties. Current Representative Mark Green (R) won by 39 points in 2022 and 31 points in 2024. The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates the district R+21, meaning it votes 21 points more Republican than the national average in presidential races.
Trump carried the district by 28 points in 2024. No Democratic candidate has cracked 38% here since the district was redrawn after the 2020 census. The current Democratic candidate, Megan Barry, is a former Nashville mayor who resigned in 2018 after pleading guilty to theft. That history makes her a weak general election candidate even in a district that trends slightly more competitive due to Nashville's growth.
The 91% price reflects both the structural Republican advantage and the candidate quality gap. Primary dynamics are irrelevant here since the GOP nominee will be heavily favored regardless.
What Could Change These Odds
A scandal involving the Republican nominee could shift the price to the 80-85% range, but not lower. The district's fundamentals are so strong that even a weak GOP candidate would likely win by 10-15 points.
The only realistic path to a Democratic win would involve a national wave election where Democrats win the House by 30+ seats. That is not priced into current 2026 House control markets, which show Republicans as slight favorites. If those markets shift dramatically toward Democrats, expect TN-07 to drop toward 75-80%.
No specific dates matter here. The primary is scheduled for August 2026, but the general election outcome is already priced in.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
Tennessee's 7th congressional district covers a large swath of Middle Tennessee, stretching from the western suburbs of Nashville to the Mississippi River. The district includes all or parts of Cheatham, Dickson, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Stewart, and Williamson counties. It has been represented by Republican Mark Green since 2019. The district is reliably Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10, meaning it votes about 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. In the 2022 midterm elections, Green won reelection with 65% of the vote against Democrat Odessa Kelly. The 2024 election cycle will determine who represents TN-07 for the term beginning January 2027. No major primary challengers have emerged against Green as of early 2025, but the district's boundaries were redrawn after the 2020 census, shifting some population centers. The district covers fast-growing Williamson County, one of the wealthiest counties in the United States, as well as rural areas along the Tennessee River. This mix of affluent suburbs and rural communities shapes the district's political character. The candidate who wins the Republican primary in August 2026 is heavily favored to win the general election in November 2026, given the district's partisan lean. National attention on this race is limited, but local factors such as economic development, infrastructure, and agricultural policy will be key issues. The district's proximity to Nashville means growth and sprawl are persistent concerns.
Historical Context
Tennessee's 7th district was created in 1833 and has been represented by Republicans continuously since 1875. The district has undergone multiple redistrictings. After the 2010 census, the district was reconfigured to include more of Williamson County and parts of Nashville's suburbs. The 2020 redistricting further solidified its Republican lean by moving Democratic-leaning precincts out of the district. Historically, the district was more competitive in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but has become solidly Republican in the modern era. The last Democrat to represent the district was John H. Savage, who served from 1849 to 1853. The district's current boundaries were drawn by the Republican-controlled Tennessee legislature in 2022. The map was challenged in court but upheld. The district's partisan lean has made it one of the safest Republican seats in the country. In presidential elections, the district has voted for Republican candidates by margins of 15 to 25 percentage points since 2000. The district's population has grown by 12% since 2010, driven by suburban expansion from Nashville. This growth has brought new voters and shifting demographics, but the district remains overwhelmingly white and affluent compared to national averages.
Why It Matters
The TN-07 race matters because it is part of the broader battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. While the district itself is safe for Republicans, the outcome of this race contributes to the national party's seat count. A strong Republican incumbent like Green helps the party maintain its majority, while any unexpected shift could signal broader trends. The district's demographics also make it a bellwether for suburban voting patterns. Williamson County's high income and education levels mean that voters here are often targeted by both parties as a key suburban demographic. The race also matters for local issues. TN-07 includes major agricultural areas along the Tennessee River, as well as rapidly developing suburbs. Federal policies on farm subsidies, infrastructure, and housing affordability directly affect residents. The district's proximity to Nashville means that transportation and water management are pressing concerns. The outcome of this race will determine who represents these interests in Washington. For national observers, the race provides a data point on Republican strength in the South. If the Republican margin shrinks significantly, it could indicate waning support for the party in suburban areas. Conversely, a strong win for Green would suggest continued Republican dominance in the region.
Current Status
As of early 2025, no major challenger has announced a campaign against Mark Green for the 2026 election. Green has not indicated whether he will seek reelection. If he does, he is expected to win the Republican primary easily. The Democratic candidate is likely to be a local activist or community leader, but no name has emerged. The primary election is scheduled for August 2026, with the general election in November 2026. The district's boundaries remain as drawn in 2022. No legal challenges are pending. National attention on the race is minimal, as it is considered safe for Republicans. However, if Green retires, the open seat could attract a competitive primary, potentially drawing national interest.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TN-07 a safe Republican seat?
Yes, TN-07 is considered a safe Republican seat. The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates it R+10, and the incumbent Mark Green won his last election by 33 points. No Democrat has won the district since 1875.
Who represents TN-07 in the House?
Mark Green has represented TN-07 since January 2019. He is a Republican and a former Army physician. He serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Homeland Security committees.
What are the major cities in TN-07?
The district includes parts of Clarksville, the state's fifth-largest city, as well as Franklin, Brentwood, and Spring Hill. These cities are in Williamson and Montgomery counties, which are the most populous parts of the district.
When is the next election for TN-07?
The next election for TN-07 will be in November 2026, with the primary election in August 2026. The winner will serve a two-year term starting January 2027.
Has TN-07 ever been competitive?
In the modern era, no. The district has not been competitive since the late 19th century. However, in the 2010s, some suburban districts in Tennessee became more competitive, but TN-07 remained solidly Republican.
What are the main issues in TN-07?
Key issues include economic development, infrastructure, healthcare, and agriculture. The district's fast-growing suburbs are concerned with transportation and schools, while rural areas focus on farming and water management.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
