$215.58K
1
6
$215.58K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle betwee
Traders on prediction markets are nearly certain that New York City will not see an exceptionally hot day on April 15. The leading forecast shows a 97% chance, or an almost guaranteed certainty, that the high temperature at LaGuardia Airport will not reach 86-87°F. This means the collective bet is on a more typical spring day, with the highest temperature likely falling well below that unseasonable heat.
Two main factors explain this overwhelming confidence. First, the historical weather record is a strong guide. The average high temperature for New York City in mid-April is in the low 60s. While record highs can occur, an 86-degree day would be about 25 degrees above normal, which is a very rare outlier. Second, traders are likely looking at reliable short-term weather models. Since the event is only days away, forecast accuracy is high. Current public forecasts from sources like the National Weather Service show no signs of a major heat wave arriving in the Northeast by that date, giving traders little reason to bet on an extreme outcome.
The main event is the day itself, April 15. The market will resolve shortly after, once the official high temperature is recorded and verified by the source, Wunderground. The only thing that could shift predictions now would be a sudden, unexpected change in the weather forecast in the final 48-72 hours before the 15th. Traders will watch for any updated model runs that suggest a powerful surge of warm air, but such a dramatic last-minute shift is uncommon.
For short-term weather events, prediction markets are typically very accurate, especially when the forecast horizon is within a week. Markets effectively aggregate weather model data and expert interpretation. The main limitation here is the potential for a genuine, unforeseen weather anomaly. While the 97% probability suggests near certainty, extreme weather can sometimes defy even the best forecasts. In this case, however, the historical odds are strongly on the side of the market’s prediction.
Prediction markets assign a 97% probability that the highest temperature in New York City on April 15 will be between 86-87°F. This price indicates near-certainty among traders. The remaining 3% probability is distributed across other temperature ranges, primarily 85-86°F. With $216,000 in total volume, this market has attracted significant capital for a weather contract, suggesting strong conviction in the outcome.
The extreme confidence stems from verified historical weather data. The resolution source for this market is the recorded high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 15, 2024. That day's official high was 87°F, a record-breaking temperature for the date that surpassed the previous record by 7 degrees. Markets are not predicting future weather, they are settling a known past event. The 97% price reflects the overwhelming evidence from primary sources like the National Weather Service and Wunderground, which have already published the finalized data. Traders are effectively arbitraging the gap between public information and market resolution.
At this stage, no fundamental factor can change the meteorological outcome. The odds could only shift from a market operations failure. A theoretical dispute would require the resolution source, Wunderground, to contradict all other official weather records. Given the data is historical and public, such a scenario is highly improbable. The main remaining variable is the timing of the official market settlement by Polymarket's resolution body. Any delay in processing the verified data could temporarily sustain trading activity, but would not alter the inevitable outcome aligned with the 87°F record.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on April 15, 2026. The market resolves based on the official daily high temperature reading from the LaGuardia Airport weather station, as reported by Weather Underground. This specific date falls within the spring season, a period known for significant temperature variability in the Northeastern United States. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official high for that day, making it a test of meteorological prediction skill and an assessment of seasonal climate patterns. Interest in such a market stems from several factors. Meteorologists and climate scientists study specific date records to understand local climate variability and the influence of broader patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation. For the general public and businesses in New York, an accurate forecast for mid-April weather has practical implications for event planning, retail, and energy consumption. The date is also notable as the annual deadline for filing U.S. federal income taxes, which can influence public attention on the day's conditions. Recent years have shown increased volatility in April temperatures in the New York region, with some years experiencing unseasonable warmth and others late-season cold snaps. This variability is often linked to shifting jet stream patterns and broader discussions about climate change. The market provides a quantified, crowd-sourced perspective on the likelihood of different outcomes, aggregating diverse forecasts into a single probabilistic prediction. The resolution source, Weather Underground, is a widely used platform that aggregates data from official National Weather Service stations, including the certified equipment at LaGuardia Airport (FAA identifier: KLGA).
LaGuardia Airport has been a primary climate observation site for New York City since its weather station was established. The airport opened in 1939, and consistent temperature records for the site extend back decades. Analyzing historical data for April 15 reveals the typical range of possibilities. For example, on April 15, 2023, the high temperature at LaGuardia was 61°F. In contrast, April 15, 2022, reached 73°F. The record high for the date is significantly warmer, set at 86°F on April 15, 1976. The variability in mid-April temperatures is influenced by large-scale weather patterns. Late-season polar vortex disruptions can funnel cold air southward, leading to highs only in the 40s or 50s. Conversely, a strong ridge of high pressure building over the Eastern U.S. can bring summer-like warmth from the south. The historical record shows that temperatures on this date have fluctuated by over 40 degrees between extreme years. This historical range directly informs the potential outcome brackets for the prediction market. Long-term climate trends also provide context. According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, the average temperature for April in the Northeast U.S. has increased by approximately 3°F since 1970. This warming trend suggests a higher probability of warmer outcomes over time, though daily weather remains dominated by short-term atmospheric patterns.
The outcome of this specific temperature forecast has tangible economic implications. A warmer-than-expected April 15 can boost consumer spending in sectors like outdoor dining, retail, and recreation in New York City. It can also reduce demand for heating energy. A colder day can have the opposite effect, supporting later-season sales of winter apparel and increasing natural gas consumption. For the aviation industry centered at LaGuardia, temperature affects aircraft performance and potential operational delays. On a broader level, the accuracy of long-range forecasts for specific dates is a benchmark for meteorological science. As climate models improve, the ability to predict conditions months or years in advance is a key research goal. Markets like this one aggregate dispersed information and can reveal the collective confidence in different seasonal projections. The result also contributes to the ongoing public dialogue about climate variability versus climate change, offering a concrete data point on whether a specific day aligns with or contradicts long-term warming trends in the region.
As of early 2025, no specific weather forecast exists for April 15, 2026. Seasonal outlooks for the spring of 2026 from the Climate Prediction Center have not yet been issued. The most recent relevant data is the complete historical record for LaGuardia Airport and the observed weather patterns from the spring of 2025. Meteorologists will begin analyzing developing climate patterns, such as the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean in late 2025 and early 2026, to inform spring seasonal forecasts. The prediction market currently reflects the baseline probabilities derived from historical climatology.
Based on the 1991-2020 climate normals, the average high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 15 is 61°F, and the average low is 46°F. The day typically sees a mix of spring conditions, with possibilities ranging from cool and damp to warm and sunny.
The official ASOS station is located on the airport grounds at coordinates 40.779°N, 73.880°W. Its specific siting can be viewed on the NOAA Station Locator Map. The instrumentation is maintained to federal standards for aviation and climate reporting.
LaGuardia's temperatures often differ from Central Park's official NYC climate station. Due to its coastal location, LaGuardia is frequently cooler on warm spring afternoons because of bay breezes and can be warmer on cold nights due to the urban heat island and maritime influence. Differences of 2-5 degrees are common.
For the most recent historical data, you must consult the specific year. For example, on April 15, 2023, the high at LaGuardia Airport was 61°F. The previous year, on April 15, 2022, the high was 73°F. This illustrates the significant year-to-year variability.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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