GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?

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When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?

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5 markets tracked

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?	Kalshi	80%
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?	Kalshi	56%
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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88%

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About This Event

next Claude Opus model If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus", e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5. before Jul X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** next Claude Opus model

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus", e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5. before Jul X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 28, 2026): Vol $0 [closed]
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost

KALSHI

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost

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Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

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Events (1)

When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?

Markets (5)

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

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Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 24, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 21, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 22, 2026?

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