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$1.13K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Perez" if Alex Perez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Johnson at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Johnson" if Charles Johnson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official informa
The prediction market is pricing in a high probability that the UFC 324 flyweight prelim bout between Alex Perez and Charles Johnson will end before the halfway point. The leading market, "Over/Under 0.5 Rounds," is trading at 85% for the "Under." This translates to an 85% chance the fight concludes in the first round, indicating the market sees an early finish as the overwhelming consensus. With only $1,000 in total volume across nine related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting this price is driven by a small pool of confident traders rather than broad market depth.
Two primary factors are compressing the odds toward a first-round finish. First, Alex Perez's recent fight history is defined by explosive outcomes. In his last five UFC appearances, four have ended in the first round, three by stoppage loss and one by submission win. His aggressive, high-paced style creates volatile early engagements. Second, Charles Johnson, while more durable, has shown vulnerability to early pressure in losses to fighters like Cody Durden and Ode Osbourne. The market is likely betting that Perez's forward pressure will either overwhelm Johnson quickly or lead to Perez being caught in a firefight, with either scenario favoring a sub-2.5 minute resolution.
The current pricing could be wrong if the fight deviates from the anticipated brawl. Johnson may employ a cautious, movement-heavy game plan to survive the early onslaught and extend the fight into deeper rounds where Perez has historically faded. A key moment to watch will be the first 90 seconds. If both fighters respect each other's power and the pace is slow, the "Over" probability could spike rapidly in-play. However, given the thin liquidity, any significant pre-fight betting activity closer to January 24 could also cause a sharp price correction if contrarian money emerges.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms eliminates arbitrage opportunities and means the 85% probability stands as the singular market sentiment. The thin volume underscores that this is a niche sports prediction, attracting only dedicated MMA bettors rather than general prediction market participants.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the flyweight preliminary bout between Alex Perez and Charles Johnson scheduled for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett on January 24, 2026. The market allows participants to wager on the official outcome of this specific mixed martial arts contest, with resolution based on the official result declared by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). This fight represents a significant matchup in the UFC's 125-pound division, where both competitors are looking to climb the rankings and position themselves for title contention. The bout is part of the preliminary card that precedes the main event featuring Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, making it an important component of a major UFC pay-per-view event. Interest in this market stems from both the competitive dynamics between two established flyweights and the broader context of UFC 324 as a landmark event in early 2026. Perez enters as a former title challenger seeking to regain momentum, while Johnson represents a dangerous rising contender looking to break into the division's upper echelon. The prediction market provides a mechanism for fans and analysts to quantify their expectations about this matchup's outcome, creating engagement beyond traditional sports betting through crowd-sourced probability estimates. The resolution conditions are clearly defined, with specific provisions for draws, cancellations, and postponements, ensuring transparent market mechanics.
The UFC flyweight division was established in 2012 with Demetrious Johnson becoming the inaugural champion, creating a 125-pound weight class that has produced some of the most technically skilled fighters in mixed martial arts history. Alex Perez's career trajectory saw him rise through the ranks during the late 2010s, culminating in his title shot against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255 in November 2020, where he lost via first-round guillotine choke. This championship opportunity came after Perez had compiled a four-fight winning streak in the UFC, including a first-round TKO victory over Jussier Formiga in June 2020. Charles Johnson entered the UFC through Dana White's Contender Series in 2022, earning a contract with a unanimous decision victory over Carlos Candelario. Since joining the promotion, Johnson has faced increasingly difficult competition, including fights against ranked opponents like Muhammad Mokaev and Azat Maksum. The historical context of this matchup reflects the UFC's flyweight division evolution, where established contenders like Perez must consistently defend their rankings against hungry newcomers like Johnson. Previous encounters between fighters at similar career crossroads have often determined future title contention pathways, making this bout significant within the division's competitive landscape. The UFC's January 2026 event continues the organization's tradition of major early-year cards that help establish divisional hierarchies for the coming season.
This prediction market matters because it represents more than just wagering on a sports outcome, it serves as a collective intelligence mechanism that aggregates dispersed information about fighter preparation, matchups, and competitive dynamics. The market's resolution probability provides a continuously updated assessment of each fighter's perceived chances, offering insights that complement traditional sports analysis. For the UFC and mixed martial arts industry, prediction markets create additional engagement layers that can increase viewership and fan investment in specific matchups. Economically, prediction markets around UFC events represent a growing segment of the sports prediction industry, which includes traditional sports betting, fantasy sports, and analytical platforms. These markets contribute to the broader ecosystem of combat sports analytics and create derivative economic activity around major events. For fighters themselves, market sentiment can indirectly influence perceptions of their marketability and future opportunities, though official rankings remain the primary determinant of career progression. The accuracy of prediction markets in forecasting UFC outcomes has been studied by researchers interested in crowd wisdom and information aggregation, making this bout another data point in understanding how well markets predict combat sports results.
As of late 2025, both fighters are preparing for their UFC 324 matchup scheduled for January 24, 2026. Training camps are underway with Perez training at Team Oyama in Irvine, California, and Johnson preparing at Fortis MMA in Dallas, Texas. The bout has been officially announced by the UFC and appears on the organization's scheduled events page. Preliminary betting lines have begun to form at sportsbooks, with early indications suggesting Perez as a moderate favorite based on his experience and past accomplishments. Both fighters have been active on social media documenting their training progress, though neither has suffered publicly reported injuries that would jeopardize the bout. The UFC 324 event is scheduled to take place at a venue to be announced, with the Perez vs. Johnson fight positioned on the preliminary card that will air on ESPN platforms before the pay-per-view main card.
If the fight is canceled or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, the prediction market will resolve as '50-50' according to the market rules. This provision ensures market resolution even if the scheduled contest does not occur within the specified timeframe.
UFC fight outcomes are officially determined by the athletic commission overseeing the event. Commissions review judges' scorecards for decisions, referee rulings for stoppages, and doctor recommendations for medical suspensions before declaring official results that prediction markets use for resolution.
Alex Perez employs a wrestling-based style with strong takedowns and heavy top pressure. He combines this grappling foundation with improving striking, particularly leg kicks, and has demonstrated finishing ability both on the ground and standing throughout his UFC career.
Yes, Charles Johnson has been finished once in his UFC career, suffering a submission loss to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 286 in March 2023. His other UFC losses have come by decision against Azat Maksum, Tatsuro Taira, and Ode' Osbourne.
The Perez vs. Johnson preliminary bout will air on ESPN, ESPN+, or UFC Fight Pass depending on your region and the specific broadcast arrangements for UFC 324. The preliminary card typically begins several hours before the main pay-per-view event.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 85% |
| Poly | 73% |
| Poly | 64% |
| Poly | 54% |
| Poly | 36% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 23% |
| Poly | 16% |
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