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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?

Name: Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.34K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?

Vol

$3.34K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.34K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?	Poly	25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?	Poly	20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3?	Poly	19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3?	Poly	14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3?	Poly	10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on May 3?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 3?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or below on May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$3.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" colum"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or below on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $700
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $197
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $262
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $35
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate