Name: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | PredictPedia

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?	Poly	93%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?	Poly	73%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?	Poly	67%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Poly	57%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	Poly	17%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $746.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $93.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $276.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $265.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $63.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $125.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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61¢

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

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Events (1)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Markets (5)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

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