Name: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | PredictPedia

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Poly	72%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Poly	54%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Poly	27%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Poly	4%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, June 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $846.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $62.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $469.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $318.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $48.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

39¢

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Markets (4)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

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