GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Name: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.52M

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Markets

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Vol

$7.52M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $7.52M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.52M

100%

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4 markets tracked

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Poly	93%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Poly	83%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Poly	60%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Poly	34%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$7.52M

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.30M
* **Total Liquidity:** $232.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.60)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $262.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $111.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $928.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

Volume$7.52M

Markets4

4 of 4

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 93.1¢No 6.9¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW ma

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/M1CqV6" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?"></iframe>

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Markets (4)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

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