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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Name: Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Vol

$8.62K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Poly	90%
Will Kathleen McLaughlin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Poly	8%
Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Poly	7%
Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Poly	2%
Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$8.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana.

If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kathleen McLaughlin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $144
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Michael BlackWolf be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $209
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics