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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?

Name: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
End: 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.69K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?

Vol

$11.69K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.69K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.69K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 2?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 2?	Poly	96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 2?	Poly	5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C or below on May 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$11.69K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenhei

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenhei

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all time"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.91)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C or below on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $388
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $657
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $368
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $536
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate