Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | PredictPedia

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Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

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Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	100%
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Philip Jefferson as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Marc Sumerlin as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Lorie Logan as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Larry Lindsey as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Larry Kudlow as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Janet Yellen as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Jerome Powell as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate James Bullard as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Howard Lutnick as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate David Zervos as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate David Malpass as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Donald Trump (Himself) as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Bill Pulte as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump next nominate Arthur Laffer as Fed Chair?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, June 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** During Trump's term

If X is the first person formally nominated by the President to Fed Chair before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following the next person fomrally nominated by the President to be Fed Chair. This market will close and expire early following the next person fomrally nominated by the President to be Fed Chair.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Stephen Miran is the first person formally nominated by the President to Fed Chair before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early following the next person fomrally nominated by the President to be Fed Chair."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $216.77M
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $5.16M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $7.02M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $14.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $32.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump next nominate Philip Jefferson as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $62.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump next nominate Marc Sumerlin as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $103.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $9.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump next nominate Lorie Logan as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $188.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump next nominate Larry Lindsey as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $46.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump next nominate Larry Kudlow as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $163.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $38.94M
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $13.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Trump next nominate Janet Yellen as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $42.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $115.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Trump next nominate Jerome Powell as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $322.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Trump next nominate James Bullard as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $115.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Trump next nominate Howard Lutnick as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $232.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Trump next nominate David Zervos as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $506.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Trump next nominate David Malpass as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $263.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Trump next nominate Donald Trump (Himself) as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $413.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Trump next nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $9.85M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Trump next nominate Bill Pulte as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $563.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Trump next nominate Arthur Laffer as Fed Chair?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $242.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

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Events (1)

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Markets (23)

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?

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Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Scott Bessent as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?

Will Trump next nominate Ron Paul as Fed Chair?

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