Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Total Volume

$1.06K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Vol

$1.06K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.06K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.06K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AHV VAT financing pass?	Kalshi	64%
Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?	Kalshi	44%
Will Fireworks Initiative pass?	Kalshi	22%
Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$1.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 In 2026 For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law, simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements. If multiple thresholds exist, e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states, all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market may close and expire early once the outco

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which November Swiss referendums will pass?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

In 2026 For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law, simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements. If multiple thresholds exist, e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states, all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market may close and expire early once the outco

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Materiel passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, su"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $528
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $506
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Fireworks Initiative pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will AHV VAT financing pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Volume$1.06K

Markets4

4 of 4

Sort:

KALSHI

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

If Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional AHV financing through a VAT increase passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (si

KALSHI

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

If Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Materiel passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, su

KALSHI

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

If Popular initiative For a limitation of fireworks passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dua

KALSHI

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

If Popular initiative Yes to fair federal taxes for married couples – finally abolish discrimination against marriage! passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the require

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

37¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/M4kkRY" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which November Swiss referendums will pass?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Markets (4)

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

Will AHV VAT financing pass?

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

Will War Materiel Act amendment pass?

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

Will Fireworks Initiative pass?

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget