Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 60% probability that Tom Aspinall will be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026. This price, trading at 60¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views Aspinall as the clear favorite, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The "Other" category, a collective field including all other possible champions, is priced at 40%. This suggests a belief that Aspinall is more likely than not to hold the title, but his path is not seen as a foregone conclusion. The market has thin liquidity, with only $46,000 in total volume, meaning these odds can be more volatile to new information.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors support Aspinall's favored status. First, his dominant technical skill set sets him apart in the division. As the current interim champion, Aspinall possesses a rare combination of speed, precision striking, and elite grappling for a heavyweight. His first-round finishes over Sergei Pavlovich and Marcin Tybura underscore his ability to dispatch top contenders efficiently. Second, the age and activity of the reigning lineal champion, Jon Jones, create a clear opening. Jones, who is expected to face Stipe Miocic and then potentially retire, may vacate or lose the title before the end of 2026, paving a direct path for Aspinall to be elevated or fight for the undisputed belt.

What Could Change These Odds

The largest near-term catalyst is the official UFC timeline for the Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic fight and its aftermath. An announcement that the winner will defend against Aspinall next would solidify his odds, potentially pushing them above 70%. Conversely, if the UFC books Aspinall in a risky interim title defense against a powerful striker like Jailton Almeida or Alexander Volkov before his shot at the undisputed belt, his odds could drop due to the threat of an upset. Furthermore, the rise of a new contender, such as a surging Curtis Blaydes seeking a trilogy fight, presents a tangible risk. Market odds will be most sensitive to official fight bookings from the UFC throughout 2025.