This prediction market addresses whether humanity will return to the lunar surface with a crewed landing by the end of 2026. It specifically resolves to 'Yes' if any human mission successfully touches down on the Moon between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The criteria are intentionally broad, requiring only a touchdown with humans aboard, regardless of mission duration or subsequent technical issues. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting from major space agencies and news organizations. The question is timely due to multiple national and commercial programs actively targeting lunar landings in this period, marking what many call a new 'Moon race' driven by geopolitical competition and scientific ambition. Interest stems from the high stakes involved, with significant national prestige, technological advancement, and potential economic benefits in space resources on the line. The outcome will signal which entities are leading in the renewed era of human space exploration beyond low Earth orbit.

Historical Context

Humanity's first crewed lunar landing was achieved by NASA's Apollo 11 mission on July 20, 1969. The Apollo program conducted six successful landings between 1969 and 1972, after which human exploration of the Moon ceased for over five decades. This hiatus was driven by high costs, shifting political priorities, and a focus on low-Earth orbit with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station. The modern push for return began in 2017 with the U.S. Space Policy Directive 1, which formally directed NASA to lead a sustainable lunar exploration program. This evolved into the Artemis program, named after Apollo's twin sister in Greek mythology, with the goal of landing 'the first woman and the first person of color' on the Moon. The 2026 target date emerges from this political directive and subsequent program planning, representing the most ambitious timeline for a human return since the Apollo era. Past experience shows that crewed lunar landing programs are susceptible to significant delays due to technical complexity, budgetary constraints, and political will, as seen in the repeated schedule slips of the Apollo program itself during the 1960s.

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