Name: GA-14 special election winner?
End: 2026-02-15T00:00:00.000Z

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24 markets tracked

Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

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Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	98%
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	2%
Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Jason Anavitarte win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Jeff Criswell win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Jennifer Strahan win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Marcus Flowers win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Tyler Paul Smith win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Trey Kelley win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Rob Ruszkowski win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Holly McCormack win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Brian Stover win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will John Cowan win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Kasey Carpenter win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Star Black win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Laura Loomer win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Elvis Casely win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Martin Momtahan win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Matt Barton win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Uloma Ekpete Kama win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Clarence Blalock win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%
Will Eddie Lumsden win the GA-14 special election?	Poly	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GA-14 special election winner?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 15, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, inclu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff elect"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $292.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $182.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.60)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $20.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jason Anavitarte win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jeff Criswell win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jennifer Strahan win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marcus Flowers win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Tyler Paul Smith win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trey Kelley win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rob Ruszkowski win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Holly McCormack win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Brian Stover win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will John Cowan win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Kasey Carpenter win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Star Black win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Laura Loomer win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Elvis Casely win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $130.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Martin Momtahan win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Matt Barton win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Uloma Ekpete Kama win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Clarence Blalock win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Eddie Lumsden win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 15, 2026): Vol $82.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

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Events (1)

GA-14 special election winner?

Markets (24)

Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?

Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?

Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?

Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?

Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?

Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?

Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?

Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?

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Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

GA-14 special election winner?

Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?

Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?

Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?

Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?

Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?

Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?

Will Chuck Hufstetler win the GA-14 special election?

Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?

Will Katie Dempsey win the GA-14 special election?

Related News & Context

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