Name: U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31? | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?	Poly	100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will reso

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.18M
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.0K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 62.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $90.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $269.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $542.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $151.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $125.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

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Events (1)

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Markets (5)

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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