Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Name: Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Vol

$8.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Poly	48%
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Poly	32%
Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	Poly	16%
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Poly	4%
Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$8.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $373
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech