Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Name: Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T22:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$92.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Vol

$92.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $92.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $92.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$92.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (79 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition pa"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $92.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $92.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics