GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place

Name: Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.40K

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Markets

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Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$25.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	47%
Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	33%
Will Eduardo Gomes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	11%
Will Vanderlei Luxemburgo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	6%
Will Paulo Mourão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	4%
Will Ronaldo Dimas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Apóstolo Flavio Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Eli Borges win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Fábio Ribeiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Nilton Santos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Osvany Luz win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Professor Osvaldo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$25.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. I"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $118.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Apóstolo Flavio Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $328
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eduardo Gomes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Eli Borges win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $470
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Fábio Ribeiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $282
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Nilton Santos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $329
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Osvany Luz win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Paulo Mourão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Professor Osvaldo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $274
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ronaldo Dimas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $323
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Vanderlei Luxemburgo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $367
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics