Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contracts in this snapshot concern the 2026 MI-02 House election. The source states that the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The margin brackets resolve on the "absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Because the margin is measured in percentage points of valid votes, a bracket reflects the gap between the top two candidates, not the total vote count.

The wording contains several rules that affect how prices should be read. If the reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. The source also says a recount keeps the market open until it is completed and the vote is made official [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and this review retrieved the source at 2026-10-15T22:15:56.608Z [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation time, not current or executable quotes. The listed contract end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

The sample includes nine Republican margin brackets and one Democratic winner contract, all from one Polymarket event. The coverage record reports 9 total and 9 included markets with no partial sample. The sample warning still states that the provider does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed, so the nine brackets should not be treated as a complete field.

Among the listed Republican margin brackets, the Yes price is highest for "by 20%-25%" at 0.2895 and lowest for "by 0%-10%" at 0.028 [1]. The Democratic winner contract shows a Yes price of 0.003 [1]. Yes prices across these ten contracts do not sum to one in a verified way, because they come from different question types and an incomplete outcome list. Any difference in prices between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking their wording, close times, and settlement rules.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show trader counts or how much liquidity sits behind each price. The reported volume values are not included here, so they cannot indicate depth. The source does not provide results, certification timing beyond the rules quoted above, or any information about events after the observation time.

References

1. Polymarket: MI-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.