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Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETEarnings

Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-02-04T22:00:00.000Z

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$2.67K

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Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $2.67K

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markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.67K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	66%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Earnings | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** As of market creation, O'Reilly Automotive is estimated to release earnings on February 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for O'Reilly Automotive's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.72 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if O'Reilly Automotive reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.72 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings do

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, O'Reilly Automotive is estimated to release earnings on February 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for O'Reilly Automotive's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.72 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if O'Reilly Automotive reports GAAP EPS greater"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $988
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.70)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 4, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

66¢

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Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

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