Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

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$18.80K

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How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

$18.80K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $18.80K

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25 markets tracked

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	67%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	66%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.18% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	63%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.17% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	59%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.16% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	54%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.15% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.14% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	48%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.12% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.13% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	44%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.11% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.10% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	37%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.03% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.02% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

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$18.80K

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About This Event

By Oct 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Oct 30, 2026

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.24% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solel"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $841
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $916
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.19% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $914
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.18% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $779
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.17% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.16% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $507
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.15% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $595
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.14% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $498
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.13% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $634
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.12% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $326
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.11% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $381
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.10% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $387
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.09% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $481
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $321
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $350
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.03% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.02% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $178
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $235
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$18.80K

Markets25

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KALSHI

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.24% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.23% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.22% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.21% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.20% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

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How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Markets (25)

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

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How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.23% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.22% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.21% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.20% by Oct 30, 2026?

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