Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

Name: Grok (Web) Outage by...?
End: 2026-12-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Grok (Web) Outage by...?

Vol

$1.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026?	Poly	53%
Grok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$1.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify. Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. An incident’s status while it remains ongoi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Grok (Web) Outage by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 1, 2026 (51 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify.

Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify. 

An incident’s status while it remains ongoi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents aff"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $499
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Grok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Grok (Web) Outage by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $547
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech