This prediction market addresses whether Israel will formally annex territory in the West Bank by the end of 2026. Annexation refers to the unilateral extension of Israeli sovereignty over land captured during the 1967 Six-Day War, territory that is considered occupied under international law and is central to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The question is politically explosive, as annexation would fundamentally alter the geographic and demographic realities on the ground, potentially extinguishing the possibility of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 borders. The topic gained renewed urgency following the Trump administration's 2020 'Peace to Prosperity' plan, which envisioned Israeli sovereignty extending over all settlements and the Jordan Valley, and subsequent coalition agreements in Israel that included provisions for advancing annexation. People are interested in this topic because it represents a potential point of no return in the conflict, with profound implications for regional stability, international law, and the future of millions of Palestinians and Israelis. The outcome is heavily influenced by domestic Israeli politics, the stance of the United States and other international actors, and the broader security situation in the region.

Historical Context

The modern context for annexation begins with Israel's capture of the West Bank from Jordan during the Six-Day War in June 1967. Since then, Israel has maintained military control over the territory while establishing civilian settlements, which are considered illegal under international law by most of the world, though Israel disputes this. A key precedent for annexation is the 1980 Jerusalem Law, which declared a united Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and the 1981 Golan Heights Law, which applied Israeli law to the territory captured from Syria. These were unilateral acts not recognized by the international community. The 1993 Oslo Accords created the Palestinian Authority and divided the West Bank into Areas A, B, and C, with Area C comprising about 60% of the land and remaining under full Israeli control. This arrangement was intended to be temporary, pending a final status agreement. The failure of subsequent peace talks, most notably at Camp David in 2000 and during the Annapolis Process in 2008, has led to a hardening of positions. In recent years, the concept of annexation has moved from the fringe to the mainstream of Israeli right-wing politics, particularly after the Trump administration's 2020 peace plan provided a perceived green light for such action.

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