Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?
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11
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature bracket will contain the lowest temperature recorded at Helsinki Vantaa Airport on 21 October 2026. The resolution source is NOAA, specifically "the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day" [1]. The source states that the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA" [1]. Readings are measured in whole degrees Celsius [1].
The rules include fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that time, the market "will resolve to the lowest bracket" [1]. The rules also allow the market to remain open for up to seven calendar days if the source publishes clearly erroneous data, and they state that revisions are considered "until the first datapoint for the following date has been published" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe resolution in terms of when the first data point for the following date is published or 11:59 PM ET the following day, whichever comes first [1]. Readers should not treat the listed end time as the exact resolution moment without checking that wording against the rules.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:11.637Z, and it lists all 11 saved markets for this event [1]. Its status is active, and this summary is not a live feed.
The Yes prices were 0.50 for "-2°C or below," 0.49 for "8°C or higher," and 0.34 for each bracket from "-1°C" through "7°C" [1]. The No prices are the complements shown in the snapshot. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The 0.34 brackets are identical in this snapshot, so the data does not distinguish between them.
The Yes prices across all 11 brackets sum to about 4.05, which is well above 1. Each bracket is a separate contract, so this total does not mean the market is mispriced, and a difference between brackets is not an arbitrage opportunity. The snapshot does not explain why the prices are set where they are.
Volume is not included in this summary, so no statement about liquidity or trader participation can be made from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
Only one provider event is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample is complete for this event: the coverage record shows 11 of 11 markets included and no partial sample [1]. This does not show that every possible real-world temperature outcome is listed.
The actual lowest temperature has not been observed or published in the supplied evidence, so no resolution outcome can be stated. The snapshot reflects conditions at its observation time and cannot tell readers what the market shows now.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?" The contract asks which temperature range will contain the lowest temperature recorded for 21 October 2026 at Helsinki Vantaa Airport. The rules name NOAA as the resolution source and state that the market will resolve to the range containing the lowest reading in the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. Temperatures are measured in whole degrees Celsius, so the rules use that level of precision when settling the market [1]. The event is a set of temperature brackets, each of which is a separate yes or no contract, and the listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The market is a short-horizon weather contract. Its outcome depends on a single observed minimum at one station on one date, not on a forecast or on general climate conditions. The rules explain the timing. The market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. The rules also say that revisions to temperatures recorded within the timeframe will be considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which alterations will not be considered [1]. The rules include fallback provisions. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used [1]. If there is no data for the observation date by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release to allow for a correction [1]. If no corrected value is published in that window, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to decide whether the original value may be used or other action is needed [1]. At the time of the saved snapshot, the bracket prices ranged from 0.34 to 0.5 for the Yes side, with the -2 or below and 8 or higher brackets showing the highest Yes prices in the saved data. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
Helsinki is the capital and most populous city in Finland. It lies on the shore of the Gulf of Finland and is the seat of southern Finland's Uusimaa region [2]. The city was known in English by its Swedish name, Helsingfors, until about 1930 [2]. Helsinki is a bilingual municipality with Finnish and Swedish as its official languages [2]. The supplied evidence does not describe the station's temperature history, so this entry does not discuss past weather patterns for the station.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific reading: the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at Helsinki Vantaa Airport on 21 October 2026, expressed in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Because the rules tie settlement to one station, one data column, and one date, the outcome is determined by that observed reading rather than by a general description of Helsinki's climate. The rules also show that the resolution process includes timing windows, a fallback data source, a default bracket when data is missing, and a correction period for clearly erroneous data [1]. Readers should therefore look at the exact settlement mechanics in the rules, not only the bracket labels.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What temperature does this market measure?
It measures the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 October 2026, using the lowest reading under the Temp column for all times on that day [1].
What happens if NOAA data is not available in time?
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source [1]. If there is no data for the observation date by that deadline, the market will resolve to the lowest bracket [1].
Can the recorded value be corrected after publication?
If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release in anticipation of a correction. If a corrected value is published in that period, it is eligible for resolution [1].
Does the price shown for a bracket mean the chance of that temperature?
The saved prices are snapshots of market prices and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The rules describe how the market resolves but do not provide a probability estimate for any temperature [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
