Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Total Volume

$3.01K

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Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Vol

$3.01K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.01K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.01K

100%

Kalshi leads

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3 markets tracked

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	69%
Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	44%
Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$3.01K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

US national AI regulator If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unconditionally announced by the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or another authorized U.S. government body. X new body or formally designated existing body qualifies only if a binding offi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the US create a national AI regulator?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** US national AI regulator

If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unconditionally announced by the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or another authorized U.S. government body. X new body or formally designated existing body qualifies only if a binding offi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Volume$3.01K

Markets3

3 of 3

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KALSHI

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unc

KALSHI

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unc

KALSHI

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unc

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Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Markets (3)

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

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Will the US create a national AI regulator?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027?

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