Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

Name: Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
End: 2026-12-02T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.51K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

Vol

$30.51K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Poly	30%
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Poly	23%
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Poly	19%
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Poly	17%
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be below -3.00 ft by November 30?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$30.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 2, 2026 (52 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".

The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 u"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.74)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest St. Louis river level be below -3.00 ft by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate