2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film? | PredictPedia

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16 markets tracked

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	36%
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	22%
Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	11%
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	11%
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	8%
Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	5%
Will Mr. Nobody against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	4%
Will Cover-Up win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	4%
Will Cutting through Rocks win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will Yanuni win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Seeds win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mistress Dispeller win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Holding Liat win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Folktales win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Coexistence, My Ass! win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Yanuni has won Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.48M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Yanuni win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tie win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Seeds win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mr. Nobody against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $792
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mistress Dispeller win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Holding Liat win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Folktales win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Cutting through Rocks win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $420
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Cover-Up win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $637
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Coexistence, My Ass! win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $998
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $481
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MekJ9k" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?"></iframe>

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2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?

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Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?

Markets (16)

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

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Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film?

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Apocalypse in the Tropics win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars?

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