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$28.91K
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$28.91K
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On Jan 31, 2026 If the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in TX-18 special election falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Christian Menefee minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Christian Menefee if Christian Menefee win
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in a special election for Texas's 18th Congressional District, scheduled for January 31, 2026. The market resolves based on whether Menefee's winning percentage margin over the second-place finisher falls within a specified range. The TX-18 district, based in Houston and Harris County, became vacant following the resignation of Democratic Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, who left Congress to become Houston's mayor in January 2025. This creates an open seat contest in a historically Democratic but politically evolving urban district. The election is being monitored as an early test of Democratic strength in Texas following the 2024 presidential cycle and could signal shifts in Houston's political landscape. Political analysts are watching voter turnout patterns and Republican challenger strength in a district that, while Democratic-leaning, has shown some competitive movement in recent statewide elections.
Texas's 18th Congressional District has been a Democratic stronghold since its creation in 1972. Barbara Jordan, the first African American woman elected to Congress from the South, represented a predecessor district from 1973 to 1979. Sheila Jackson Lee won the seat in 1994 and maintained it for three decades, typically winning by overwhelming margins. In her final general election in 2022, she defeated Republican challenger James Ellzey with 72.5% of the vote. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2021 by the Texas Legislature, maintaining its Democratic lean with a population that is approximately 41% Black, 40% Hispanic, and 15% white according to Census data. Special elections in Texas have occasionally produced surprises. In 2021, Republican Jake Ellzey won a special election in Texas's 6th District despite Donald Trump endorsing his opponent, demonstrating that low-turnout contests can deviate from typical partisan patterns. The last special election for a Houston-area congressional seat occurred in 2019 when Democrat Lizzie Fletcher won Texas's 7th District, flipping a Republican-held seat.
The outcome will test Democratic organizational strength in Harris County, Texas's most populous county and a critical battleground in statewide elections. A narrower-than-expected victory for Menefee could signal Democratic vulnerability heading into the 2026 midterms, potentially affecting fundraising and candidate recruitment. Conversely, a strong Democratic performance might encourage party leaders to invest more resources in Texas for future cycles. The margin could influence perceptions of Houston's political trajectory as the city experiences demographic changes. Downstream consequences include potential effects on congressional committee assignments and seniority, as the winner will begin with less seniority than Jackson Lee possessed. Local policy priorities may shift depending on whether the district elects a prosecutor-turned-politician like Menefee or a business-focused Republican like Sanchez.
The special election was officially called by Texas Governor Greg Abbott in November 2025 following Jackson Lee's resignation. Candidate filing closed on December 2, 2025, with Christian Menefee and Lorenzo Sanchez emerging as the major party nominees alongside three minor party candidates. Early voting began on January 20, 2026. Initial early vote returns show stronger Democratic than Republican turnout in Harris County, but substantially lower overall participation compared to the 2024 general election. Both campaigns are running television advertisements and conducting get-out-the-vote operations in the final days before the January 31 election.
The margin is calculated as Christian Menefee's percentage of the total vote minus the percentage received by the second-place finisher. For example, if Menefee gets 55% and the runner-up gets 40%, the margin is 15 percentage points.
Unofficial results will be reported on election night, January 31, 2026. Official certification by the Texas Secretary of State typically occurs within 5-10 days after the election, once all mail ballots are counted and results are canvassed.
Texas law requires a candidate to receive a majority (over 50%) to win a special election outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election, which would be scheduled for late spring 2026.
The seat remains vacant until the special election winner is sworn in. Constituent services are handled by Jackson Lee's former district office staff under congressional vacancy procedures, but the district has no voting representative during this period.
The winner will serve the remainder of Jackson Lee's term, which ends in January 2027. They must run again in the November 2026 general election for a full two-year term starting in 2027, assuming they choose to seek reelection.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 25% and 100%? | Kalshi | 100% |
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 5% and 10%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 20% and 25%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 0% and 5%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 15% and 20%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Christian Menefee in the TX-18 special election be between 10% and 15%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Amanda Edwards in the TX-18 special election be between 5% and 10%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Amanda Edwards in the TX-18 special election be between 15% and 100%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Amanda Edwards in the TX-18 special election be between 0% and 5%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for Amanda Edwards in the TX-18 special election be between 10% and 15%? | Kalshi | 1% |
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