Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?

Reported volume

PM $30.3

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?

Vol

PM $30.3

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Provider overview

polymarket

$30.3

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

0 contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	40.1%
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	15.5%
Will KICK - Live Streaming be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	13.5%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	13.1%
Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	13.1%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	12.7%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Poly	11.0%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $30.3

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $30.3
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837710; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-muse-from-meta-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 15.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837711; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-vinted-pre-loved-marketplace-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 13.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837712; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-chatgpt-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 11.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837713; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tiktok-pro-events-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 40.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 60.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837714; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-by-anthropic-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $10.1
Outcome Yes: 12.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837715; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-google-gemini-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-23-10172026
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $20.2
Outcome Yes: 13.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Contract: Will KICK - Live Streaming be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5837716; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/reserved-app-1-20261023-10172026-174419
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 23, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 13.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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