GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Name: Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.21K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Vol

$18.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	71%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Nvidia have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will StepFun have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	1%
Will MiniMax have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$18.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note:

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (57 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note:

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Tex"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $12.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $283
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $325
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $357
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $448
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $326
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $366
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $165
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $422
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $307
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $302
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will MiniMax have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $328
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $286
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $286
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $287
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $281
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Nvidia have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $290
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $286
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will StepFun have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $287
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $283
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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