$407.87K
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$407.87K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between Februrary 1 and Februrary 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction markets currently give roughly a 56% chance that Donald Trump will speak with Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union party, during February 2026. This is essentially a coin flip, showing traders are almost evenly split on whether the conversation will happen. The market reflects the collective judgment of thousands of people weighing the political incentives and logistical realities of such a call.
The even odds stem from two main factors. First, Friedrich Merz leads Germany's main opposition party. If he becomes Chancellor after the 2025 German election, he would be a key European leader. A future U.S. president might want to establish early contact. Second, there is significant uncertainty. The event is over a year away, and it depends entirely on the outcomes of both the 2024 U.S. election and the 2025 German election. If either Trump or Merz fails to win, the call becomes politically irrelevant. Traders are essentially betting on two separate election results lining up.
The main event to watch is the German federal election, currently expected in the fall of 2025. The result will determine if Merz becomes Chancellor or remains opposition leader. The U.S. presidential inauguration on January 20, 2026, is the other critical date. If Trump is inaugurated, his early diplomatic calls in February would be closely watched. Market odds will likely shift dramatically based on these two election results throughout 2024 and 2025.
For long-term political questions like this, prediction markets are good at aggregating available information, but they are highly sensitive to new events. The current 56% probability is a very soft estimate because it is a forecast on top of a forecast. The market is more reliable closer to the event, once the relevant elections have actually decided who holds power. For now, it shows that traders see a plausible path for this conversation, but no certainty.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 56% probability that Donald Trump will speak with German opposition leader Friedrich Merz in February 2026. This price indicates the market views a conversation as slightly more likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. With $399,000 in total volume spread across 26 related markets on potential Trump interlocutors, this specific contract has attracted significant attention. The market resolves in seven days based on credible media reporting of any verbal interaction, in-person or virtual.
The 56% price reflects two concrete political realities. First, Friedrich Merz leads the center-right CDU/CSU bloc in the German Bundestag, making him a logical European contact for a potential second Trump administration. Historical precedent is a factor. Trump maintained working relationships with Angela Merkel's government despite public friction, and a meeting with her successor would follow established diplomatic channels. Second, Merz has publicly stated his intention to engage with a reelected President Trump, telling German media in January 2026 that "we will have to talk to him." This explicit openness from Merz directly informs market pricing.
The primary catalyst is Trump's official schedule, which remains fluid. A confirmed trip to Europe or a planned call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz could increase the odds of a Merz conversation, as Trump might bundle meetings with multiple German political figures. Conversely, the odds would fall sharply if Trump's focus shifts decisively to domestic policy or other international crises in the final week of February. The market also faces resolution risk. A brief, unreported exchange at a multilateral summit could occur but fail to meet the threshold for "credible reporting," causing a "No" resolution despite an actual conversation.
As this market trades only on Polymarket, there is no arbitrage opportunity from cross-platform spreads. The moderate liquidity suggests trader conviction is genuine but not overwhelming. The 56% price essentially represents a coin flip weighted by Merz's stated intentions and institutional diplomatic norms. Traders are betting on whether formal protocol or Trump's unpredictable style will dictate his February engagements.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether specific individuals will have conversations with Donald Trump during February 2026. The market defines a 'talk' as any interaction involving verbal communication, including in-person meetings, phone calls, or video conferences. Resolution depends on credible media reports confirming such conversations occurred between February 1 and February 28, 2026. The topic gains significance from Trump's political position, whether as a former president, a declared candidate for the 2028 election, or the sitting president if he wins the 2024 election. His conversations during this period could signal policy directions, political alliances, or responses to unfolding events. Media outlets and political analysts typically track Trump's meetings and calls closely, as they often precede major announcements or shifts in strategy. This market allows participants to speculate on which figures Trump will prioritize for consultation during a specific timeframe, reflecting assessments of his political needs and relationships.
Tracking Donald Trump's conversations has been a consistent feature of political journalism since his 2016 campaign. As president, his phone calls with foreign leaders like Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2019 became the basis for his first impeachment. The White House typically logs presidential calls in official summaries, though Trump's administration sometimes released unconventional readouts. After leaving office, reports of his conversations rely on leaks from associates or statements by the other participant. For example, in August 2023, Trump confirmed a phone call with Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, which was later cited in election interference charges. The precedent for 'credible reporting' as a resolution source comes from prediction markets on political events, which often use aggregations of major news organizations like The New York Times, The Washington Post, or Reuters. February is historically a month for political maneuvering ahead of primary elections or policy launches, making it a period of heightened communication activity.
The identity of Trump's conversation partners provides insight into his political and policy priorities. Discussions with foreign leaders can signal shifts in international diplomacy or national security postures. Talks with domestic figures might reveal campaign strategies, legislative agendas, or efforts to unify party factions. For markets and analysts, these interactions serve as leading indicators for policy announcements, electoral endorsements, or geopolitical developments. The outcomes affect investor confidence in sectors sensitive to regulatory changes, such as energy, technology, or defense. Media coverage of these conversations also shapes public perception, influencing political narratives and potentially moving opinion polls. Stakeholders range from political operatives and journalists to investors and foreign governments, all monitoring who has Trump's ear at a given moment.
As of early 2025, Donald Trump is actively engaged in political campaigning and public appearances. His recent schedule includes rallies, media interviews, and private meetings at Mar-a-Lago. Several individuals listed, like Mike Johnson and Elon Musk, have appeared with him at events in late 2024. No official calendar for February 2026 exists, but Trump's team typically announces major engagements a few weeks in advance. Political observers are speculating on his priorities for that period, which may include early primary campaigning for the 2028 cycle or, if he is president, budget negotiations and foreign policy initiatives.
Credible reporting typically includes confirmation from major news organizations like Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, or The New York Times, or official statements from the participants themselves. The market operator will assess multiple sources to establish consensus.
No. The market requires verbal communication that constitutes an interaction, not merely a public acknowledgment. A brief exchange of pleasantries without substantive discussion might not meet the threshold unless reports characterize it as a conversation.
Verification relies on participants confirming the call, screenshots or descriptions from reliable sources, or official schedules listing the video meeting. Many politicians, including Trump, have publicly disclosed Zoom or teleconference calls during the pandemic.
The market resolves based on reporting within the resolution period. If a conversation occurs in February 2026 but is not reported until March, it does not count. The cutoff is 11:59 PM ET on February 28, 2026.
No. The market specifies the listed individual must talk directly with Donald Trump. Communication through aides, written messages, or third parties does not qualify.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 37% |
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