Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Name: October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
End: 2026-12-02T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.46K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Vol

$1.46K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.46K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.46K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?	Poly	50%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Poly	32%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?	Poly	27%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?	Poly	27%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Poly	14%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$1.46K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomal

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 2, 2026 (52 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomal

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $159
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 2, 2026): Vol $106
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate