Cleveland vs Tampa Bay: 4th Inning Total
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Cleveland vs Tampa Bay: 4th Inning Total
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
4th Inning CLE vs TB (Oct 19) If Cleveland and Tampa Bay collectively score more than X runs in the 4th inning of the Cleveland vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 19, 2026 at 8:08 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Important Information: Only runs scored during the 4th inning count towards this market. If the game is called before the 4th inning is completed this market will resolve to a Fair Price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early once the specified inning is completed.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event [1] covers runs scored only in the 4th inning of the Cleveland vs Tampa Bay game, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 8:08 PM EDT. Under the rules, if the teams collectively score more than the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. The rules state that "Only runs scored during the 4th inning count towards this market." If the game is called before the 4th inning is completed, the market "will resolve to a Fair Price," and the market closes early once the inning is completed.
The two saved contracts use the same event but different thresholds: "Over 0.5 runs" and "Over 1.5 runs." Their titles identify the thresholds, so they are separate questions and should not be read as one distribution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:34:57Z. These prices describe that snapshot only and may not reflect later quotes.
For Over 0.5 runs, the saved Yes price is 0.355 and the No price is 0.645. For Over 1.5 runs, the Yes price is 0.205 and the No price is 0.795. Each contract's Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume or liquidity measures, so it does not indicate how deep the market was.
Both markets list an end date of 2026-10-22T00:08:00Z, while the provider status line says the "Listed end time: not supplied." The rules also say the market closes once the inning ends, so the listed date should not be treated as the actual closing or resolution time.
Because both contracts come from one platform and one event, there is no cross-platform comparison here.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes 2 of 2 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome," so other thresholds may exist outside this record.
The evidence does not explain the prices, report trader counts, or describe any game developments after the snapshot. Whether the game is played, called, or completed in the 4th inning is not established by the supplied material.
References
- Kalshi: Cleveland vs Tampa Bay: 4th Inning Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market on the number of runs scored in the fourth inning of a scheduled Major League Baseball game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays. The provider describes it as a total-runs market. If Cleveland and Tampa Bay collectively score more than a stated number of runs in the fourth inning, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is titled as an inning total, and the game was originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 8:08 PM EDT [1]. The Cleveland Guardians are described as an American professional baseball team based in Cleveland that competes in Major League Baseball as a member club of the American League Central Division [2]. The market rules are narrow. Only runs scored during the fourth inning count toward the market, so runs in other innings have no effect on the outcome [1]. The provider states that the market will close and expire early once the specified inning is completed [1]. If the game is called before the fourth inning is completed, the provider says the market will resolve to a Fair Price rather than to Yes or No [1]. The provider also states that Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to the governing league [1]. The saved event includes two threshold markets. One asks whether the teams will score more than 0.5 runs in the fourth inning, and the other asks whether they will score more than 1.5 runs [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own price, so they should be read as different questions rather than as competing versions of the same bet.
Historical Context
The Cleveland Guardians have been a Major League franchise since 1901, and the sources describe a long competitive history. The team has won 14 Central Division titles, six American League pennants, and two World Series championships. The team's World Series championship drought, dating to 1948, is described as the longest active among the 30 current Major League teams [2]. The team has played its home games at Progressive Field since 1994 [2]. This background describes the franchise's record and does not describe the status of the October 19, 2026 game.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow slice of a baseball game: the combined number of runs scored by both teams in one inning. Because it covers only the fourth inning, it does not track the final score or the full-game result [1]. A market like this is sensitive to scoring in one half-inning period, and the provider's rules cover how cancellations and early closure are handled [1]. For a reader, the key points are the threshold (X runs in the provider's stated rule), the inning covered, and the possibility of a Fair Price outcome if the game is called before the fourth inning ends [1]. The baseball background helps place the market in context but does not change its rules. Baseball scoring in any given inning is uncertain, and the sources here do not provide information about how often a fourth inning produces a particular number of runs. A reader should consult the provider's full rules and the live market rather than treating these background facts as predictions. The sources also do not say how this particular game is expected to be played.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract pay out on?
The market resolves to Yes if the two teams collectively score more than the stated number of runs during the fourth inning of the game [1]. Only runs scored in the fourth inning count [1].
What happens if the game is called early?
If the game is called before the fourth inning is completed, the provider says the market resolves to a Fair Price [1].
Why are there two separate markets for this event?
The saved event includes one market for more than 0.5 runs and another for more than 1.5 runs in the fourth inning [1]. These are separate threshold questions with separate prices.
Does the closing date mean the game is scheduled to end then?
The market data lists an end date of October 22, 2026 at 00:08 UTC, but the provider's rules say the market closes early once the fourth inning is completed [1]. The listed end date should not be read as an announced game or event time.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
