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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

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Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

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Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	93%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	86%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	78%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	69%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	48%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	34%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	22%
Will Francesca Hong receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?	Kalshi	9%

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93%

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Francesca Hong If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inclu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Francesca Hong

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inclu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 55% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

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KALSHI

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

KALSHI

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 25% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

KALSHI

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

KALSHI

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

KALSHI

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MqsqIj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent"></iframe>

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Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

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Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

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Events (1)

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

Markets (8)

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

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Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary: Francesca Hong vote percent

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

Will Francesca Hong receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?

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