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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Name: How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$65.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Vol

$65.02K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $65.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

5.7%avg

max 22.8%

Arbitrage

of 12 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $65.02K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(12)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	23%	23%	0%
Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	25%	7%	18%
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	17%	10%	7%
Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	24%	2%	23%
Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	14%	12%	3%
Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	11%	7%	4%
Will 51 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	10%	2%	8%
Will 57 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	5%	5%	1%
Will 58 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	5%	4%	1%
Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?ARB	5%	1%	3%

Single-Platform Markets(1)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$65.02K

Volume

Markets

4.7%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Fe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 2027

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not including “zero” within its count, e.g. “Between 50 and 64”, resolves to No, and any market including “zero”, e.g. “Below 50”, resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the nominee is confirme

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Forma"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $65.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.23)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (13 mkts) vs Kalshi (12 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 22.8% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.1% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will 51 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 7.8% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $549
  DATA: [Yes: 11.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.4% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $673
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.5% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $327
  DATA: [Yes: 22.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 17.8% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will 56 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will 57 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will 58 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 11. Will 59 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $388
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $41.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 7.0% spread between platforms.

### 13. Will no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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KALSHIPolitics

How many Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair?

Before Jan 2027 If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not including “zero” within its count, e.g. “Between 50 and 64”, resolves to No, and any market including “zero”, e.g. “Below 50”, resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the nominee is confirme

Volume$0.00

Markets12

POLYMARKETPolitics

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Volume$65.02K

Markets13

13 of 13

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POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average22.7%

Polymarket+0.5%

22.9%

Kalshi

22.5%

Difference:0.5%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 22.9¢No 77.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (54)

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is exactly 54, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market no

Arbitrage Opportunity: 17.8% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average15.9%

Polymarket+17.8%

24.8%

Kalshi

7.0%

Difference:17.8% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 24.8¢No 75.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (55)

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is exactly 55, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market no

Arbitrage Opportunity: 7.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average13.0%

Polymarket+7.0%

16.5%

Kalshi

9.5%

Difference:7.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (60 or above)

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is above 59, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not

Arbitrage Opportunity: 22.8% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average12.9%

Polymarket+22.8%

24.3%

Kalshi

1.5%

Difference:22.8% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 24.3¢No 75.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (49 or below)

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is below 50, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.5% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average12.8%

Polymarket+2.5%

14.0%

Kalshi

11.5%

Difference:2.5% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (53)

If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is exactly 53, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market no

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Next Market Closes

85d 19h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

12¢

Polymarket

6¢

Kalshi

23¢ price gap

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How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

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Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

How many Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair?

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Markets (12)

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (54)

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (55)

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (60 or above)

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (49 or below)

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (53)

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Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

How many Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair?

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (54)

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (55)

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (60 or above)

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (49 or below)

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? (53)

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