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Will the Democratic Party win the GA-13 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Republican Party win the GA-13 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of Georgia's 13th congressional district House election in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who ultimately wins the seat, as determined by major media outlets and election authorities. Georgia's 13th district, located in the northwestern Atlanta suburbs, is a competitive political battleground that has shifted from reliably Republican to a more contested status in recent cycles. The 2026 race will be closely watched as a bellwether for suburban political trends in the South and could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Political observers are interested in this market because it represents a test of whether Democratic gains in Georgia's suburbs will hold or if Republicans can reclaim territory they once dominated. The district's demographic changes, including growing diversity and an influx of college-educated voters, make it a case study in the political realignment of American suburbs. The outcome may also signal the strength of Georgia's evolving political coalitions ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Georgia's 13th congressional district has undergone substantial political transformation since its creation after the 1990 census. For most of its history, the district was solidly Republican, represented by conservative Republicans including Mac Collins from 1993 to 2003. The district's political shift began in 2002 when Democrat David Scott won the seat, benefiting from redistricting that added more Democratic-leaning areas of Clayton County. Scott's victory made him the first African American to represent a Georgia congressional district with a majority-white population. The district's boundaries changed significantly during the 2011 redistricting cycle, becoming more compact and centered on southern Cobb County and parts of Fulton and Clayton counties. This redistricting made the district more Democratic, with the Cook Political Report rating it D+20. However, the 2021 redistricting by Georgia's Republican-controlled legislature altered the district again, making it more competitive by removing some Democratic areas and adding Republican-leaning parts of Douglas and Fayette counties. In the 2022 election under the new map, David Scott still won comfortably, but his margin decreased from previous cycles, indicating the district had become more competitive.
The GA-13 election matters because it represents a test of whether Democratic gains in Southern suburbs are durable or temporary. Since 2016, educated suburban voters have moved toward Democrats in many parts of the country, including Georgia. A Democratic victory in 2026 would suggest this realignment has become entrenched in the Atlanta metro area. A Republican win would indicate either a reversal of this trend or successful GOP adaptation to changing demographics. The outcome also has practical implications for House control. While GA-13 is not among the most competitive districts nationally, it could become a tipping point seat if the House majority is narrowly divided. The district's population of approximately 765,000 people will receive representation that affects federal policy on issues from transportation funding to healthcare access. Local governments in the district's counties rely on federal grants and programs that their representative can influence.
As of early 2025, no major candidates have officially declared for the 2026 GA-13 race. Incumbent David Scott has not announced whether he will seek a thirteenth term. Potential Republican challengers are reportedly assessing the race but waiting for Scott's decision before committing. The district remains classified as 'Likely Democratic' by most political forecasters, though some analysts note it could become more competitive if Scott retires. Local Democratic organizations have begun preliminary voter registration efforts in the district, while Republican groups are conducting opposition research on potential Democratic candidates. The fundraising quarter ending December 31, 2024, showed Scott with approximately $450,000 in his campaign account, a relatively modest sum for an incumbent, fueling speculation about his political future.
Georgia's 13th district includes parts of Clayton, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette, and Fulton counties. The district encompasses southern Cobb County, eastern Douglas County, northern Fayette County, and portions of Clayton and Fulton counties in the Atlanta metropolitan area.
The filing deadline for the 2026 election will likely be in early March 2026, based on Georgia's election calendar. Candidates must qualify with the Georgia Secretary of State's office during the official qualifying period, which typically occurs in March of election years.
Yes, the district elected Republican representatives before David Scott. Mac Collins, a Republican, represented the district from 1993 to 2003. The district's partisan alignment has shifted since then due to demographic changes and redistricting.
David Scott serves as the ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee. He previously chaired this committee from 2021 to 2023. He also serves on the House Financial Services Committee.
The 2021 redistricting made GA-13 more competitive by removing some Democratic areas of south Fulton County and adding Republican-leaning parts of Fayette and Douglas counties. According to the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, the district became approximately 5 points more Republican under the new map.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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