$490.21K
1
3
$490.21K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "LNG Esports" if LNG Esports win against Ultra Prime in the named LoL match in the LPL Split 1 Group Nirvana, scheduled for January 16 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ultra Prime" if Ultra Prime win against LNG Esports in the LoL match. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will
Prediction markets give LNG Esports a near-certain chance of winning their League of Legends match against Ultra Prime. The market price translates to a virtual guarantee of victory. Traders collectively see this as one of the most lopsided matchups in the current LPL season.
The extreme confidence stems from a major gap in team strength and recent history. LNG Esports is a perennial top-tier team in China's LPL, often competing for championships and international tournament slots. Ultra Prime, in contrast, has consistently been a lower-ranked squad, frequently finishing near the bottom of the league.
The specific format of this match, a best-of-three series, also favors the stronger team. It reduces the chance of a single lucky game deciding the outcome. LNG's roster is filled with star players and experienced veterans, while Ultra Prime is seen as a developing team. Past meetings between these teams have almost always resulted in decisive wins for LNG, which shapes current expectations.
The match is scheduled for January 16 at 4:00 AM ET. Any official announcement of a player substitution or illness for either team, especially for LNG's key stars, could theoretically shift the odds, but it would require very significant news. Barring an unexpected last-minute roster change, the market expects this result to be settled by the morning of January 16.
For professional esports, prediction markets on heavily favored outcomes like this are often accurate. The large volume of money wagered here suggests many people are acting on deep knowledge of the league. However, the nature of sports always allows for an upset. Markets can sometimes overestimate the certainty of a favorite, but in cases with such overwhelming odds, the historical accuracy is generally high. The main limitation is that at 100% odds, the market has no room to price in truly freak events, like a team failing to show up, which is why the possibility never fully reaches zero.
Prediction markets price an LNG Esports victory as a near certainty. On Polymarket, the contract for "LNG Esports to win 2 games?" trades at 100%, indicating traders see no plausible path for an Ultra Prime upset in this best-of-three series. This price reflects maximum confidence, equivalent to a 99%+ implied probability. The market has attracted $490,000 in total volume, showing significant trader interest and conviction in this lopsided matchup.
The pricing is a direct reflection of the stark competitive gap between these LPL teams. LNG Esports is a perennial championship contender, finishing as the runner-up in the 2023 LPL Summer Split and performing strongly at the 2023 World Championship. Their roster retains superstar players like Scout and GALA. Ultra Prime, in contrast, is a perennial lower-tier team that consistently struggles against the league's elite. Historical head-to-head records heavily favor LNG, and Ultra Prime has shown no significant roster upgrades in the 2024 preseason to suggest an upset is brewing. The market views this as a mismatch between a title aspirant and a team likely fighting to avoid the bottom of the standings.
For a market priced at 100%, only a catastrophic, unforeseen event could alter the odds. A last-minute player illness or connectivity issue for LNG's core stars might introduce minimal doubt, but even then, their strategic depth and coaching staff are superior. The match was scheduled for January 16, and the 100% price holding indicates the result likely confirmed the market's expectation. For future similar matchups, odds would only shift if Ultra Prime demonstrated drastic early-season form or if LNG suffered a major, sustained slump. In this specific instance, the market correctly identified a fixture with essentially no outcome variance.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a professional League of Legends match in China's League of Legends Pro League (LPL). The specific contest is a best-of-three series between LNG Esports and Ultra Prime, scheduled for January 16 at 4:00 AM Eastern Time. The match is part of the LPL Split 1 Group Nirvana stage, a segment of the regular season where teams compete for playoff qualification and seeding. Prediction markets allow participants to wager on the outcome, with this market resolving to the winning team's name. The resolution source is typically the official LPL broadcast or league website. Interest stems from the competitive stakes for both organizations. LNG Esports is a perennial contender with recent international appearances, while Ultra Prime often occupies a middle-to-lower tier position, making any upset victory significant. The match outcome influences team standings, fan perception, and betting markets. Analysts and fans follow these games to gauge team form, meta adaptations, and player performance ahead of more critical playoff matches later in the split.
The League of Legends Pro League (LPL) was founded in 2013 and has grown into the largest and most competitive regional league in the world. Chinese teams have won three World Championships (2018, 2019, 2021). The league structure has evolved, with the current format featuring a regular season split followed by playoffs. The Group Nirvana stage is a component of the regular season introduced in recent years to create more meaningful matches throughout the split. LNG Esports entered the LPL in 2019 after acquiring the Snake Esports franchise slot. The organization quickly invested in star talent, reaching the World Championship in 2021 and 2023. Their best international result was a quarterfinal exit in 2023. Ultra Prime joined the LPL in 2021 through the acquisition of the eStar Gaming slot. The team has yet to qualify for the LPL playoffs or any international event, typically finishing between 10th and 14th place in the 17-team league. Historically, matches between LNG and Ultra Prime have been one-sided. In their four meetings across 2022 and 2023, LNG Esports won all four series, often by a 2-0 scoreline. This lopsided history informs the perception of LNG as a heavy favorite in this matchup.
The outcome of this match has tangible consequences for the LPL ecosystem. For LNG Esports, a loss to a lower-ranked team like Ultra Prime could damage their standing for favorable playoff seeding and invite criticism from a massive fanbase. It could also affect player morale and the organization's brand value, which is tied to consistent high performance. For Ultra Prime, a victory would be a major upset, boosting team confidence, attracting positive media attention, and potentially improving sponsorship opportunities. Beyond the teams, the result influences the broader competitive integrity of the league. Consistent outcomes where top teams defeat lower teams validate the league's hierarchy and scouting models. Upsets, while exciting, can complicate playoff races and force analysts to re-evaluate team strength. The match also matters to the global esports betting industry, where LPL matches generate significant wagering volume. A surprising result can cause volatility in betting markets and future odds for both teams.
The LPL 2024 Spring Split is underway. Both teams have played their initial matches in the new season. LNG Esports is expected to be a top-tier team again, though any roster changes or meta shifts since the 2023 World Championship in November could affect their early form. Ultra Prime's roster for 2024 may include new players, as the offseason transfer window allows for significant changes. The specific schedule for January 16 is confirmed by the LPL. Analysts will be watching pre-match interviews, solo queue rankings, and any official announcements regarding starting lineups or player health to finalize predictions. The match will be broadcast live on platforms like Huya, DouYu, and the official LPL English stream.
The match is scheduled to begin at 4:00 AM Eastern Time (ET) on January 16. For viewers in China, this is 5:00 PM local time on January 16.
The official broadcast is available on Chinese streaming platforms Huya and DouYu. An English language cast is typically provided on the LPL's official Twitch and YouTube channels.
No. In the recorded history of matches between these two organizations in the LPL, LNG Esports has won every best-of-three series. The head-to-head record strongly favors LNG.
Rosters are finalized during the offseason transfer window. For the most accurate, updated rosters, check the official LPL website or team social media accounts just prior to the match, as last-minute substitutions can occur.
According to this prediction market's rules, if the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed. The resolution will be based on the result of the rescheduled match.
Based on historical performance and roster strength, LNG Esports is the heavy favorite. They are a consistent playoff team with world-class players, while Ultra Prime has historically been a lower-tier LPL squad.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Mugt4K" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="LoL: LNG Esports vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana"></iframe>