CPI in May | PredictPedia

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14 markets tracked

Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in May 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in May 2026?	Kalshi	61%
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in May 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in May 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?	Kalshi	37%
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in May 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in May 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in May 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in May 2026?	Kalshi	7%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CPI in May
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In May 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X single-decimal, in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release, June 10, 2026. Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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40¢

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Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?

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Events (1)

CPI in May

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Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?

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