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How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

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How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	86%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	81%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	68%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	62%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	58%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	44%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	42%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

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$0.00

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About This Event

after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027 If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 90 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

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KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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63¢

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How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

Markets (7)

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?

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