Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

Total Volume

$21.97K

Events

Markets

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When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

Vol

$21.97K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $21.97K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.97K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?	Kalshi	87%
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	77%
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	77%
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	74%
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	69%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$21.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

S&P 500 Index - 8000 If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** S&P 500 Index - 8000

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 8, 2027): Vol $252
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $14.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

Volume$21.97K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $8,000 at any point after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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Average Yes Price

77¢

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When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

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Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

Markets (5)

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

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Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?

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