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Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

Name: Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$127.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $127.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $127.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	Poly	69%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (351 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $127.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 24.53)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $127.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

350d 20h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 5:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

69¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/N3pI_R" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?"></iframe>

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Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

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Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)