Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US hourly earnings growth in October

Total Volume

$1.00

Events

Markets

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US hourly earnings growth in October

Vol

$1.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.00

100%

Kalshi leads

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7 markets tracked

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?	Kalshi	69%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	64%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?	Kalshi	59%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	54%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?	Kalshi	50%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	47%
Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.5%?	Kalshi	42%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$1.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 2026 If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls stated in the initial Employment Situation release for the reference month. The measure is seasonally adjusted and is not adjusted for infla

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US hourly earnings growth in October
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 2026

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls stated in the initial Employment Situation release for the reference month. The measure is seasonally adjusted and is not adjusted for infla

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 

0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US hourly earnings growth in October

Volume$1.00

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in

KALSHI

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.0¢No 36.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in a

KALSHI

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in a

KALSHI

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in a

KALSHI

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in a

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US hourly earnings growth in October

US hourly earnings growth in October

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Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

US hourly earnings growth in October

Markets (7)

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

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Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US hourly earnings growth in October

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above -0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026 be above 0.3%?

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