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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (WI-02) in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by the resolution sources after the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. The district covers the state capital, Madison, and surrounding areas in south-central Wisconsin. The seat is currently held by Democratic Representative Mark Pocan, who has represented the district since 2013. The 2026 election will be part of a national midterm cycle where all 435 House seats are contested, with outcomes potentially shifting the balance of power in Congress. Interest in this market stems from the district's status as a Democratic stronghold, making it a potential indicator of broader national trends or a test case for Republican efforts to compete in historically liberal urban centers. The race also serves as a barometer for voter sentiment in a politically divided state that is often a presidential battleground.
Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district has a long history of Democratic representation. The district's boundaries have shifted over time but have consistently included the city of Madison, a liberal hub anchored by the University of Wisconsin and state government. From 1999 to 2013, the seat was held by Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012. Mark Pocan, then a state representative, won the subsequent special election in August 2012 with 68% of the vote. He has been re-elected every two years since, often facing only nominal Republican opposition. The district's partisan lean is pronounced. According to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI), WI-02 has a rating of D+19, meaning it performs an average of 19 points more Democratic than the national average in presidential elections. This makes it one of the most reliably Democratic districts in the Midwest. The last time a Republican won the seat was in 1994, when Scott Klug was re-elected during the 'Republican Revolution' before retiring in 1998. The district's political identity is closely tied to Madison's progressive activism and the university's influence.
The outcome of the WI-02 House election matters as a gauge of Democratic strength in a core urban base. A competitive race or an unexpected shift in margin could signal changing demographics, voter dissatisfaction, or the effectiveness of new political strategies in a type of district Democrats must hold to maintain a House majority. For Republicans, even a significantly improved performance in such a Democratic district could suggest expanding appeal in suburban areas or among specific voter groups. The election also has local implications. The representative influences federal spending, policy on issues like education and healthcare, and the political clout of the Madison area. A change in party control, while historically unlikely, would represent a seismic shift in Wisconsin politics and trigger a reassessment of the state's political map. The race is watched by national committees as they allocate finite campaign resources, deciding whether to defend safe seats or contest long shots.
As of early 2025, Representative Mark Pocan has not formally announced his intentions for the 2026 election. He is widely expected to seek re-election but could potentially retire, which would open the seat for the first time in over a decade. The Republican field is undeclared, with no prominent candidates yet entering the race. The district boundaries for the 2026 election will be those established by the Wisconsin Supreme Court's adoption of new legislative maps in 2024, which left the 2nd district's heavily Democratic composition largely unchanged. Political operatives are beginning to assess the national environment for the 2026 midterms, which will be the first federal election after the 2024 presidential contest.
The current U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district is Democrat Mark Pocan. He was first elected in a 2012 special election and has been re-elected every two years since.
The general election for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district and all U.S. House seats will be held on November 4, 2026. This is the date set for the 2026 midterm elections.
Yes, WI-02 is considered a safe Democratic seat. It has a Cook PVI rating of D+19, and a Democrat has won the district by at least 20 percentage points in every election since 2012.
The district is centered on the state capital, Madison. It also includes surrounding communities in Dane County, such as Sun Prairie, Middleton, Fitchburg, and Verona, along with parts of Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Richland, and Sauk counties.
Yes, but not recently. Republican Scott Klug held the seat from 1991 to 1999. The last Republican to win the district was Klug in 1996. A Democrat has held the seat continuously since 1999.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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