GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

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Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

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5 markets tracked

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)	Kalshi	96%
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)	Kalshi	92%
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)	Kalshi	88%
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)	Kalshi	73%
When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)	Kalshi	13%

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96%

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About This Event

retatrutide (LY3437943) If the FDA approves retatrutide, LY3437943, for marketing before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application, BLA, For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA, sNDA, or supplemental BLA, sBLA, for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Ap

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** retatrutide (LY3437943)

If the FDA approves retatrutide, LY3437943, for marketing before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application, BLA, For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA, sNDA, or supplemental BLA, sBLA, for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Ap

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as:

For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

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KALSHI

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed d

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed d

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed d

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed d

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed d

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When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

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Events (1)

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Markets (5)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

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Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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